华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move in a short - term sideways trend, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, and an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, most of the rest will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum moved in a sideways trend. The strong US employment data in January reduced the urgency of the Fed's mid - year rate cut again. Although there are signs of resilience in the US labor market, suggesting that the Fed may remain on hold for a long time, the US dollar still weakened [3] - Currently, domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, and the short - term price remains stable. For imported ore, due to the falling ore price, alumina plants' purchasing willingness is still weak, and with the early annual maintenance plans of some alumina plants and high absolute inventory, the purchasing demand is weak, and the imported ore price is under pressure [4] - This week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was 52.8%, a significant 5.1 - percentage - point decrease from last week, with significant differentiation among sectors. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises decreased by 3 percentage points to 63.0%, the operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 57.3%, the weekly operating rate of aluminum cable enterprises was 53%, a 5 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 25.5%, a 10.5 - percentage - point decrease [4] - The social inventory of aluminum ingots across the country has started to accumulate about two months before the Spring Festival. As of February 9, it reached 857,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase from last Monday. With the recent price decline, attention should be paid to downstream feedback, but overall, it is difficult to see obvious improvement in the downstream before the Spring Festival [4] - Before the festival, there is no obvious macro boost. The linkage between precious metals and non - ferrous metals is still strong, the market trading sentiment is cautious, and the price is in a range - bound adjustment in the short term. Be vigilant against the risks after the festival caused by external market fluctuations [5]