光大期货能化商品日报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IEA predicts that global oil demand growth will be slower than expected in 2026, and the market will face a large - scale supply surplus of 3.73 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4% of global demand. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to geopolitical uncertainties, and traders are advised to participate with light positions [1]. - The fuel oil market shows a mixed situation. The high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening, while the low - sulfur market in Singapore is under pressure. Both FU and LU are affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil costs, and traders are advised to hold light positions before the Spring Festival [1][3]. - The asphalt market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is affected by the cost - end oil price, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations after the US - Iran negotiation. Traders are advised to hold light positions before the Spring Festival [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA are expected to follow the cost and fluctuate weakly, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of crude oil, the possible unscheduled shutdown of polyester raw materials, and the resumption of work of downstream and terminal enterprises after the festival [4]. - The rubber market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a slight increase in port inventory. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the opening of rubber tapping in southern Thailand, the inventory accumulation of domestic natural rubber, and the delivery of overseas orders of tire factories during the Spring Festival [5]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. Although the decline in Iranian shipments will support prices, the low load of MTO devices and the approaching Spring Festival will limit the market [5]. - The polyolefin market will gradually start to accumulate inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly due to the high - level production and the approaching Spring Festival [6]. - The PVC market has a weak fundamental driving force, but the export tax - free policy before April 1st will provide short - term support, and the price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Thursday, WTI March contract closed down $1.79 to $62.84 per barrel, a 2.77% decline; Brent April contract closed down $1.88 to $67.52 per barrel, a 2.71% decline; SC2604 closed at 456.3 yuan per barrel, down 24.4 yuan, a 5.14% decline. The price is expected to be volatile [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main contract FU2605 of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.09% to 2,888 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2604 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.45% to 3,349 yuan per ton. The market shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [1][3]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main contract BU2603 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.24% to 3,327 yuan per ton. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [3]. - Polyester: TA605 closed at 5,220 yuan per ton, down 0.76%; EG2605 closed at 3,723 yuan per ton, down 1.09%. PX and PTA are expected to follow the cost and fluctuate weakly, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - Rubber: On Thursday, the main contract RU2605 of Shanghai rubber fell 125 yuan per ton to 16,450 yuan per ton; NR main contract fell 75 yuan per ton to 13,370 yuan per ton; BR main contract fell 305 yuan per ton to 12,715 yuan per ton. The price is expected to be volatile [5]. - Methanol: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,210 yuan per ton. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [5]. - Polyolefins: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East China wire drawing was 6,520 - 6,700 yuan per ton. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Thursday, the PVC market in East China was stable, and the price in South China rose slightly. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on February 12, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - The gasoline inventory at the Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp (ARA) hub decreased to 1.284 million tons, the fuel oil inventory increased to 1.112 million tons, the aviation fuel inventory decreased to 0.857 million tons, the naphtha inventory increased to 0.68 million tons, and the diesel inventory increased to 2.159 million tons [9]. - Russia is preparing to transport crude oil and fuel to Cuba in the near future to help Cuba solve its fuel shortage problem [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report shows the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15][17][18][20][21][23][25][26] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It presents the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [27][28][31][32] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [35][37][41][43][46][48] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [51][53][54][57] - 4.5 Production Profits: It shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical varieties, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol [59][61] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards [64]. - Du Bingqin: Research Director of Energy and Chemicals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and multiple awards [65]. - Di Yilin: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant research achievements and awards [66]. - Peng Haibo: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant work experience and awards [67].