光大期货煤化工商品日报-20260213

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices fluctuated strongly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,843 yuan/ton, a 2.79% increase. The spot market was mostly stable, with individual regions slightly increasing prices. The supply level of urea remained unchanged, with a daily output of 215,600 tons. The demand was weak, with a sales-to-production ratio of 5% - 50% in the mainstream areas and 95% in some regions. The market activity continued to decline. The futures market was affected by the news of the "4 - 6 month urea guidance price increase", but the news was unconfirmed. After the Spring Festival, there were positive expectations for the demand peak season, global energy price fluctuations, and the results of the Indian tender. However, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the peak season was more obvious, and the upward space for both futures and spot prices was limited. It was recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the Spring Festival [2]. - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated weakly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,162 yuan/ton, a 0.94% decrease. The spot price remained stable, and the traders' quotes fluctuated with the market. This week, the soda ash production increased by 2.32% to 792,300 tons, and the inventory increased by 0.44%. After the Spring Festival, the inventory reduction pressure of enterprises would be higher than the same period last year. The demand was still weak, and the support was insufficient. Overall, the fundamental pressure of soda ash was still high, and the market activity before the festival decreased. It was recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation thinking. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the linkage effect brought by macro - policies and the trends of related products in the commodity market. It was recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the Spring Festival [2]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated widely and trended weakly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,065 yuan/ton, a 0.47% decrease. The spot price was stable. The glass supply continued to decline slightly, and the demand also showed a seasonal decline. During the Spring Festival, the spot market was basically closed, and the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival was uncertain. The glass would show a state of both supply and demand decline. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of glass was difficult to improve significantly. Before the festival, the futures market was mainly in a weak - oscillation state. After the festival, there was still an expectation of a phased market following macro - policies and production line shutdowns. Attention should be paid to the game between external factors and fundamentals. It was recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the Spring Festival [2]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information Urea - On February 12, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 10,949, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 325 [5]. - On February 12, the daily output of the urea industry was 213,900 tons, unchanged from the previous working day, and an increase of 23,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate was 90.86%, an increase of 5.59 percentage points compared with 85.27% in the same period last year [5]. - On February 12, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions of China were: Shandong 1,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,810 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei 1,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,810 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jiangsu 1,810 yuan/ton (unchanged) [5]. - On February 11, the inventory of urea enterprises was 834,700 tons, a decrease of 83,800 tons (-9.12%) compared with the previous week [6]. Soda Ash and Glass - On February 12, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 4,035, a decrease of 1,599 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 879; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 1,000, unchanged from the previous trading day [8]. - On February 12, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton [8]. - As of the week of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 85.18%, an increase of 1.93 percentage points from the previous week; the soda ash production was 792,300 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons (+2.32%) from the previous week [8]. - On February 12, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,588,000 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons (+0.61%) compared with Monday and an increase of 6,900 tons (+0.44%) compared with last Thursday [8]. - On February 12, the average price of the float glass market was 1,107 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output was 148,000 tons per day, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous day [8]. - On February 12, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.288 million weight boxes (+4.31%) from the previous week, and a decrease of 12.28% compared with the same period last year. The inventory days were 24.4 days, an increase of 1.3 days from the previous week [9]. Group 4: Summary of Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the futures price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][13][15][19][21][23] Group 5: Introduction of Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research. She has won many awards [26]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has also won many awards [26]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has won relevant awards [26]