黑色商品日报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The rebar market shows weak consolidation. Production has dropped significantly, inventory is accumulating rapidly, and demand is decreasing. However, after a month - long decline, prices are at a relatively low level, and with macro - policy easing expectations and a strong overall commodity market, the downside space is limited. It is recommended that market participants hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price will show an oscillating trend. Supply has decreased due to the impact of a hurricane in Australia, while demand has seen a slight increase in iron - water production. The inventory of imported iron ore at ports has decreased, and the inventory of steel mills has increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to oscillate. Supply is limited as private coal mines are on holiday and state - owned mines focus on safety. Downstream demand is weakening as coking and steel enterprises slow down production and most coking enterprises have completed pre - holiday stockpiling [1]. - Coke: The coke market is likely to oscillate. The cost of coke has decreased due to the decline in raw coal prices, leading to an increase in supply. However, steel mills have basically completed winter stockpiling, and terminal demand is in the off - season, resulting in reduced procurement enthusiasm [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price is expected to oscillate. The cost of manganese ore may rise after the holiday. Production has slightly decreased, demand support is limited, and inventory is at a high level [3]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures price is expected to oscillate. Supply is expected to remain stable during the Spring Festival. Market trading has become lighter, and inventory is at a medium - level [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3050 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 34,000 lots in positions. National rebar production this week decreased by 225,200 tons to 1.6916 million tons, social inventory increased by 573,100 tons to 4.2323 million tons, factory inventory increased by 99,400 tons to 1.6359 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 457,300 tons to 1.0191 million tons. The inventory accumulation this year is significantly greater than last year, and post - holiday inventory will face digestion pressure [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 762 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%), with 110,000 lots in trading volume and a decrease of 9,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased significantly due to the hurricane, global shipments dropped sharply. There were 8 new blast - furnace overhauls and 11 blast - furnace restarts. Iron - water production increased by 19,100 tons to 2.3049 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 1.8256 million tons to 177.32 million tons, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to increase by 3.87 million tons [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1120 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (0.31%), with a decrease of 17,938 lots in positions. The price of lean raw coal in Changzhi, Shanxi decreased by 45 yuan to 610 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 3 yuan to 1015 yuan/ton [1]. - Coke: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1664 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.18%), with an increase of 280 lots in positions. The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1470 yuan/ton [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened oscillatingly, with the main contract closing at 5800 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The positions of the main contract increased by 10,954 lots to 378,400 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions is about 5570 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Silicon Iron: On Thursday, the silicon iron futures price weakened oscillatingly, with the main contract closing at 5500 yuan/ton, down 1.47%. The positions of the main contract increased by 25,052 lots to 187,400 lots. The aggregated price of 72 silicon in various regions is 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron, as well as information on profits and cross - variety spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: It includes price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [15][16][19][20][21][22]. - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It presents inter - period contract spread trend charts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [24][25][26][27][31][32][33][35][37]. - 3.3.4 Cross - variety Contract Spreads: It includes cross - variety contract spread trend charts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc. [38][39][40][41][42]. - 3.3.5 Rebar Profits: It shows trend charts of the rebar main - contract盘面 profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [44][45][46][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [49][50].