有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 13 日）-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The potential return of Russia to the US dollar settlement system and the sharp drop in US stocks last night have re - raised concerns about market liquidity. The recent trend of copper prices is somewhat consistent with that of overseas financial markets and precious metals, indicating that the current operating logic still depends on financial attributes and market sentiment. Overall, it is regarded as a fluctuating and slightly bullish market. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but due to the upcoming Spring Festival and strong geopolitical disturbances in the overseas market during the holiday, it is advised to hold a light position during the holiday [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of alumina in the spot market declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots decreased. Affected by the rise in overseas alumina prices and the early raw material winter storage of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina futures price rose against the trend. However, due to large inventory backlogs and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipts cancellation, the upward trend of alumina is difficult to continue. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand from the processing end is weak, and the social inventory begins to accumulate rapidly. Currently, the market risk premium is being withdrawn, and the center and volatility of aluminum prices are decreasing. Be vigilant about the risk pricing related to the uncertain situation between the US and Iran [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 4.51% to $17,250 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan per ton. The LME inventory increased by 636 tons to 286,386 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts remained at 52,027 tons. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia has shrunk significantly compared with the previous year. There are concerns about tight resource supply in the future, which pushes up the boundary cost support. In terms of demand, affected by the Spring Festival in February, the weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the supply side has many maintenance plans. In the new energy sector, the spot procurement and sales of nickel sulfate are relatively sluggish, and the output of ternary materials is also expected to decline month - on - month. Although the phased demand has weakened month - on - month, the cost support is still solid. Pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line. If the subsequent explicit inventory can be significantly reduced, it may have a positive feedback on the price. Be vigilant about the weakening of market sentiment and hold a light position during the holiday [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight price decline, influenced by geopolitical and market liquidity factors, overall bullish with a suggestion of buying on dips and light - position holiday holding [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight price decline, affected by supply - demand and inventory factors, with a weakening trend and risk concerns [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight price decline, inventory changes, supply - demand situation, cost support, and trading suggestions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On February 12, 2026, the price of flat - water copper was 102,030 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan from the previous day. The inventory in LME remained unchanged, while the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8,282 tons. The social inventory remained at 40.9 million tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 750 yuan [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The warehouse receipts in SHFE increased by 6,501 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 17,240 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi quotation was 23,360 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons, and the inventory of alumina decreased by 4,000 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 149,550 yuan/ton, up 2,250 yuan. The inventory of nickel in SHFE increased by 2,061 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2,784 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price was 24,590 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The weekly inventory in SHFE increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price was 393,120 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. The inventory in SHFE decreased by 1,718 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][11][12][13]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [15][16][18][19][20][21][22]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][24][25][26][27][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][30][31][32][33][34]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the award for the best metal industry futures research team by Futures Daily and Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [49]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst in non - ferrous metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research and services for clients [49]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst in non - ferrous metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She has won relevant industry awards and serves many leading enterprises in the new energy industry [50].