光大期货软商品日报（2026 年2月13日）-20260213

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with limited upward drive for Zhengzhou cotton before the Spring Festival. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be upward space. The 2026 cotton planting area in China is expected to decline by 1.7% year - on - year, and the national cotton output is expected to drop by 5.8% year - on - year. The demand for replenishment is limited in terms of time and space [2] - The sugar market is also in a volatile pattern. The raw sugar is suppressed by oversupply, and the domestic market is relatively independent before the import license is issued, but may be affected by the overseas market during the long holiday [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.39% to 64.29 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.58% to 14,790 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions decreasing by 2,417 lots to 694,000 lots. The supply this year is set. The demand for replenishment is limited as textile enterprises are on holiday, and the cotton inventory of spinning enterprises is at a five - year high. The market trading is weak [2] - Sugar: As of February 10, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 7.67% year - on - year, the sugar content increased by 0.15%, the sugar production rate increased by 0.171%, and the sugar production decreased by 6.17% year - on - year. The domestic sugar price quotations of some groups were slightly reduced. The raw sugar price hit a five - year low due to oversupply, and the domestic market is volatile [2] Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 3 - 5 spread is 70, up 20; the main basis is 1,279, down 5; the Xinjiang spot price is 15,792, up 36; the national spot price is 16,069, up 40 [3] - Sugar: The 3 - 5 spread is 3, up 1; the main basis is 96, up 12; the Nanning spot price is 5,330, unchanged; the Liuzhou spot price is 5,350, unchanged [3] Market Information - On February 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,889, an increase of 143 from the previous trading day, with 1,156 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions of China were reported [4] - On February 12, the yarn comprehensive load was 28.6, down 3.3 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 22.8, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 23.3, down 7.9; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.6, unchanged [4] - On February 12, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the sugar spot price in Liuzhou was 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,461, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 258 valid forecasts [4][5] Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price indices [7][10][15][18]