首席点评：IEA需求预警施压油市

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bullish: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, corn [5] - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, methanol, steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, apple [5] Core Views - The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and expects a daily surplus of 373,000 barrels, mainly due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries [1][3][12] - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's cotton exports in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.5 million bales, a 6% year-on-year increase [1] - The COMEX's silver inventory has decreased, with a net out-of-warehouse volume of 4.7 million ounces in 24 hours [1] - Most domestic futures contracts fell at the night session, with crude oil down over 2% and caustic soda up over 3% [1] - The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - For precious metals, after market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The China-US trade "ceasefire" is expected to be extended [6] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan outright repurchase operation on February 13, with a 6-month term. The 6-month outright repurchase will be increased for the sixth consecutive month, with an increase of 50 billion yuan [7] Industry News - The Ministry of Education has issued an opinion on deepening the reform of key elements in vocational education teaching, focusing on adding new majors in fields such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [8] 2. Daily Returns of External Markets - Most external market varieties showed price declines on February 12, with London silver having the largest drop of 10.73%, followed by ICE Brent crude oil at 2.99% and London gold at 3.17%. Only a few varieties such as ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT wheat showed price increases [9] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index：The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - Treasury Bonds：Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [11] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil：sc crude oil fell 5.14% at the night session. The global oil market is facing a large surplus, with supply growth outpacing demand [3][12] - Methanol：Methanol fell 0.04% at the night session. The overall coastal inventory is basically flat, and the inventory process is slow [13] - Natural Rubber：Natural rubber slightly declined. With the approaching Spring Festival, risk control and position reduction are recommended [14] - Polyolefins：Polyolefin futures mainly fell. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and short-term prices follow cost fluctuations [15] - Glass and Soda Ash：Glass futures slightly fell, and soda ash futures mainly declined. The supply and demand of glass are gradually being repaired, while the supply of soda ash has slightly shrunk, and the effectiveness of supply and demand repair needs further observation [16] Metals - Precious Metals：Precious metals fell, with silver having a larger decline. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] - Copper：Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [18] - Zinc：Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - Aluminum：The short-term industrial situation of aluminum is relatively weak, but in the long term, low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relatively strong support for the price [20] - Lithium Carbonate：The market sentiment has turned weak again, and the futures price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the right-side trading opportunities after volatility reduction and participate cautiously [21][22] Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke：The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend at the night session. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the trend of hot metal production, mine operation, and import policies [23] - Steel：The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern [24] - Iron Ore：The short-term iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak operation, and steel mills are expected to replenish inventory on demand [25] Agricultural Products - Protein Meal：Domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the external market, but the high inventory and sufficient supply in the far month are expected to continue to put pressure on prices [26][27] - Oils and Fats：Oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend at the night session. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is in the de-stocking cycle, and prices are expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [28] - Sugar：Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term, with the international sugar price breaking through the downward trend [29] - Cotton：Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the near term, with potential pressure on the upside in the short term [30] - Hogs：The short-term hog price may show a narrow-range shock, supported by sentiment and local inventory replenishment, but the overall upside space is limited [31] Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe：EC rose 6.4%. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the verification of cargo volume expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [32][33]