Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-13 05:44Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [4][10]. Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy in 2024 is expected to significantly activate the home appliance market, expanding the subsidy range to include eight categories, which will drive demand effectively [4]. - Retail sales data for kitchen appliances in 2025 shows a decline in overall demand, with a projected retail sales value of 161.3 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights a differentiation in performance among kitchen appliance categories, with traditional appliances like range hoods and gas stoves experiencing declines, while emerging categories like dishwashers show varied results [4]. - The report recommends investing in leading brands such as Robam Appliances and Vatti, which are expected to benefit from the new subsidy policies focusing on energy-efficient products [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The "old-for-new" policy will include subsidies for six major appliance categories, with a 15% subsidy on the sales price, capped at 1,500 yuan per item [4]. - Retail sales for range hoods are projected at 36.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9%, while gas stoves are expected to reach 20.4 billion yuan, growing by 15.7% [4]. Performance Analysis - In Q4 2025, the kitchen appliance sector is expected to see a retail sales decline of 8.5% year-on-year, with total sales volume dropping by 5.3% [4]. - Traditional kitchen appliances like range hoods and gas stoves are projected to see declines of 3.6% and 4.9% respectively, while newer categories like dishwashers are also facing challenges with a 3.2% decline [4]. Competitive Landscape - In the offline market, leading brands like Robam and Fotile dominate with nearly 60% market share in range hoods and gas stoves [4]. - Online competition is intensifying, with brands like Midea and Xiaomi rapidly increasing their market shares in various categories [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands with strong market positions and energy-efficient products, particularly Robam Appliances, Vatti, and Wanhe Electric, which are well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming subsidy policies [4].