焦煤焦炭周度报告-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures maintained a weak and volatile trend. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate [6][32]. - Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. Overall, the inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The double - coking futures maintained a weak and volatile trend this week. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate. The coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable, the molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus | Multi - factors | Short - factors | | --- | --- | | The inventory structure of coking coal has improved | The winter storage of steel products was poor, limiting the raw material replenishment space of steel mills | | The domestic macro - policy is positive | As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment rhythm gradually slows down | | The molten iron output is stable, supporting the demand for furnace materials | The financial market fluctuations intensify, and the sentiment is changeable | [10] 3.3 Data Analysis - Coking coal supply: As of the week of February 13, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 81.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28%, and the daily average output was 74.26 tons, a decrease of 1.19 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 32.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.26%, and the daily average output was 24.34 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons. As of the weekly statistics on February 7, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 92.9745 tons, slightly shrinking from the previous period. The coking coal supply contracted significantly during the week before the Spring Festival [12]. - Coking coal inventory: As of the week of February 13, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 261.24 tons, a decrease of 3.41 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 309.01 tons, a decrease of 25.45 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 258.41 tons, a decrease of 14.35 tons. With the contraction of the supply end and the end of downstream replenishment, the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline [14]. - Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises: As of February 13, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1329.99 tons, an increase of 27.6 tons. The current inventory availability days of coking enterprises were 15.68 days, an increase of 0.17 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 82.8 tons, a cumulative increase of 0.06 tons. The coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, and the coking coal raw material had been replenished for many weeks, but the replenishment intensity weakened as the Spring Festival approached [17]. - Raw material inventory of steel mills: As of February 13, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 838.25 tons, an increase of 14.05 tons. The inventory availability days were 13.34 days, an increase of 0.22 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 671.91 tons, an increase of 5.53 tons compared with the previous period, and the availability days were 12.7 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished [21]. - Coke production capacity utilization rate: As of February 13, the production capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.74%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.79 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons compared with the previous period; the production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.33%, the same as the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 47.23 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with the previous period. Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable [23]. - Coke consumption: According to the statistics of Steel Union, as of the week of February 13, China's coke consumption was 103.72 tons, an increase of 0.86 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of molten iron was 230.49 tons, an increase of 1.91 tons. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption [25]. - Coke profit: As of February 13, the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.53%, a decrease of 0.86% compared with the previous period. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure [27]. - Double - coking futures - spot basis structure: The double - coking futures fluctuated [29]. 3.4后市研判 - Coking coal: During the week before the Spring Festival, the coking coal supply contracted significantly, and the upstream coking coal inventory continued to decline. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises continued to be replenished, and the raw material end of steel mills was slightly replenished. The fundamentals of coking coal were stable, the spot market was quiet, and the external macro - sentiment significantly affected the futures. The trading volume of the futures decreased continuously during the week before the Spring Festival, and the pre - festival funds were cautious with reduced participation. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength in the "Golden March and Silver April", with support at the lower price level and the upward momentum yet to accumulate [32]. - Coke: Recently, the coke production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. The molten iron output increased slightly, supporting the coke consumption. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises improved, while the profit of steel enterprises was under pressure. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was not high, the supply - demand was stable, and the coke futures followed the cost end of coking coal [35].