沥青周度报告-20260213

Report Summary Market Focus - The US and Iran continue to advance negotiations [7]. - OPEC maintains its global crude oil demand growth forecast [7]. - OPEC+ crude oil production in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day month-on-month [7]. Key Data - As of February 4, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.5%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period [7]. - As of February 13, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week [7]. - As of February 13, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous week [7]. - As of February 13, the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 988,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [7]. Main Viewpoint - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a weak trend due to the transmission of oil prices. Crude oil prices were suppressed by both the easing of geopolitical tensions and the decline in market risk appetite, showing a volatile and weak trend [8]. - In the future, before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, crude oil is expected to maintain high volatility and lack a clear directional driver. It is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the second - round negotiations between the US and Iran [8]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: raw material disruptions, geopolitical disruptions [12]. - Bearish factor: ineffective improvement in demand [12]. Macroeconomic Analysis US - Iran Negotiations - The indirect US - Iran negotiations have not achieved substantial results. The two countries are expected to hold more talks in the next few days. The US may send a second aircraft carrier if the negotiations fail. The situation remains uncertain, and concerns will support the market [13]. OPEC+ Production and Demand - OPEC+ production in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in Kazakhstan's production [14]. - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027, with expected growth of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 [14]. - There may be a slight supply surplus of about 250,000 barrels per day in the second quarter [14]. - The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 will be the key to observe whether the production strategy will be adjusted [14]. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of February 13, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week. Refinery operating rates are in a seasonal decline, and supply pressure is expected to decrease [15]. - As of February 4, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.5%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period [22]. Demand - As of February 13, the weekly asphalt shipment was 257,000 tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the previous statistical period and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [25]. - As of February 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 3.71%, a decrease of 0.91 percentage points from the previous week, and it is expected to remain low in the first quarter [28]. Inventory - As of February 13, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,000 tons [34]. - As of February 13, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 988,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons [41]. Spread - As of February 13, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt diluted processing was 9 yuan per ton, an increase of 42 yuan per ton from the previous week. The crack spread decreased month - on - month, the basis strengthened slightly, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 51.98 as of February 11 [50]. Future Outlook - Before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, crude oil is expected to maintain high volatility, and there is great uncertainty in oil price fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. Position control is recommended. Attention should be paid to the second - round US - Iran negotiations [52].