芳烃市场周报：交投转淡，节间存累库预期（PX，纯苯，苯乙烯）-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX has been in a relatively strong pattern since the fourth quarter due to improved downstream demand and positive news. Although the current profitability is good and the long - term outlook is positive, there is a lack of support for further strengthening of the supply - demand side. The absolute price trend is mainly supported by strong crude oil. In the short term, pay attention to the price changes of aromatics and the shift of demand and the terminal to the off - season. It is expected that the tight pattern may continue during the maintenance season from March to May 2026, but the supply at home and abroad will return due to high profitability, which is more relaxed than before [3]. - For pure benzene, affected by the implementation of new production capacity, the overall environment is still bearish for its price. Although the supply - demand situation has improved, the high port inventory and high import volume are difficult to quickly reduce, and the supply - side pressure still exists. After the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of both supply and demand increase, and inventory may accumulate from March. If the cost - side support further weakens, the pure benzene - styrene industry chain may follow and then fluctuate [5]. - For styrene, the supply - demand structure has improved since November 2025. In 2026, the price has increased due to factors such as limited supply increase, port inventory reduction, and cost increase. In the short term, the planned maintenance will decrease, and the production is expected to remain high. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the terminal demand is weakening, and there is still pressure for inventory accumulation. In the medium term, pay attention to the performance of downstream rigid demand [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PX Price - Previously, due to continuous geopolitical positive factors, the cost - side oil price rose, and the PX outer - market price increased continuously. The spot and futures prices fluctuated at a high level, and the basis widened continuously as the futures price rose rapidly. After the oil price回调 and then fluctuated, PX followed the cost - side changes. Sinopec's PX settlement price in January was 7340 yuan/ton, and the listed price in February was 7650 yuan/ton, a slight increase [3]. Supply - During the week, the reforming unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical restarted, and the PX load recovered. The 800,000 - ton PX unit of Sinochem Quanzhou stopped for maintenance on November 25, 2025, and restarted on January 25, 2026, but no qualified products were produced. This week, the PX output was 758,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 91.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.78%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 80.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%. The production enthusiasm of PX factories remained good, and the domestic and overseas start - up rates were still at a high level [3]. Demand - This week, the domestic PTA output was 1.4639 million tons, an increase of 5,300 tons compared with last week and an increase of 63,700 tons compared with the same period last year. Sichuan Energy Investment restarted during the cycle, and there was no change in other devices. The overall domestic output increased slightly this cycle [3]. Outlook - In the short term, PX will be sorted at a high level, and the PX - BZ spread will slightly widen from a low level in the short term. There is an expectation that PX will be stronger than pure benzene during the maintenance season, and the processing spread may widen again after the Spring Festival, but there is still uncertainty on the cost side [3]. Pure Benzene Price - The futures price of pure benzene has fluctuated greatly recently. It continuously rose from around 5400 yuan/ton in early January, then fell sharply following the macro - market sentiment and the cost side in early February, and has fluctuated since then [5]. Supply and Demand - In December, the national pure benzene output was 1.9228 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The estimated import volume of pure benzene in China in December was 470,000 tons, remaining at a high level. Overall, pure benzene has changed from oversupply to undersupply, and the demand side has improved. The restart of the Quanzhou supply device has increased the domestic supply of pure benzene after the Spring Festival [5]. Inventory - As of this week, the total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 297,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous inventory of 296,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%, and an increase of 129,000 tons compared with the inventory of 168,000 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 76.79%. The port pick - up of pure benzene was active, and the inventory was basically the same as before [5]. Outlook - In the short term, pure benzene will fluctuate. After the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of both supply and demand increase, and inventory may accumulate from March. Pay attention to the rhythm of production reduction and shutdown during the maintenance season. If the cost - side support further weakens, the pure benzene - styrene industry chain may follow and then fluctuate [5]. Styrene Price - Recently, the main contract of styrene has fluctuated after a decline. It followed the cost side and the macro - commodity market to回调 in early February. The current mainstream price in East China is 7605 yuan/ton, a decrease from before [6]. Profit - The average profit of non - integrated styrene units in China this cycle was 490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 19.69%. The weekly profit of non - integrated styrene units in China decreased, showing a downward trend. On February 12, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene units in China was 403 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a month - on - month decrease of 4.01%. The theoretical cash - flow cost of domestic non - integrated styrene units is 6902 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow profit is 703 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 356,500 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. The factory capacity utilization rate was 71.08%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. This week, the devices of Tianjin Bohua and Xinyang have restarted and produced products. There is a possibility of further output increase in the future. Coupled with the fact that the Sinochem Quanzhou device is likely to resume supply early next week, the overall supply will continue to increase compared with this week [6]. Demand - The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 260,400 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. During the week, the overall demand of the three major downstream factories increased slightly. While the demand for PS and ABS decreased slightly, the pre - festival stocking of EPS increased unexpectedly [6]. Inventory - As of February 9, 2026, the total inventory of styrene port samples in Jiangsu was 96,200 tons, a decrease of 12,400 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 11.42%. The commercial inventory was 54,000 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 11.18%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the overall downstream demand is expected to decrease. Considering the changes in both supply and demand, styrene may accumulate inventory during the festival [6]. Outlook - In the short term, if the geopolitical risk does not further expand, styrene will remain relatively weak before the Spring Festival and fluctuate after a decline. In the medium term, pay attention to the performance of downstream rigid demand. It is recommended to close the position at an appropriate time and pay attention to the cost - side changes during the festival [7].