宏观经济专题：地方两会观察：内需和科技的新图景

Economic Growth Targets - The weighted average GDP growth target for 31 provinces in 2026 is set at 5.0%, down from 5.3% in 2025[2] - 17 provinces have lowered their targets, while 14 have kept them unchanged; 7 provinces set interval targets, indicating a likelihood of a national target range of 4.5% to 5%[2][13] - Economic powerhouses are expected to bear more responsibility for growth, with half of the top ten provinces maintaining their original targets[2][13] Investment Focus - The average fixed asset investment growth target has decreased from 6.3% to 5.1%, with all provinces either lowering or maintaining their 2025 targets[3][37] - Emphasis is placed on expanding private and livelihood investments, with many provinces encouraging private capital participation in various sectors[3][38] - Specific investment plans include a commitment of 721.46 billion yuan in Guangdong for livelihood projects[38] Consumption Trends - The weighted average target for social retail sales growth is approximately 4.8%, down from 5.4% in 2025[4] - Provinces are focusing on increasing residents' income through measures like raising basic pensions and providing subsidies[4] - New consumption models are being developed, particularly in sectors like health, culture, and entertainment, with a focus on "emotional economy"[4] Technological Development - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is entering a comprehensive application phase, with local governments promoting AI in various sectors[5] - Emerging industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, and renewable energy are prioritized, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan"[5] Real Estate Market - The main strategies for the real estate sector include revitalizing existing stock and improving housing quality[6] - Many provinces are initiating programs to purchase existing homes for affordable housing, marking a shift from previous strategies[6] National Conference Outlook - The national GDP growth target is likely to be set between 4.5% and 5%, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and technological breakthroughs[6] - Investment strategies will continue to support key projects and enhance livelihood investments, while the real estate sector will focus on revitalizing existing stock[6]