粤开宏观：2026年地方政府怎么干：上篇：目标怎么定？

GDP Growth Targets - The average GDP growth target for 31 provinces in 2026 is set at 5.0%, with 19 provinces lowering their targets compared to 2025[2] - 24 provinces have set their GDP growth targets between 4.5% and 5.5%, with Tibet leading at "over 7%" due to major infrastructure investments[3] - Only Jiangxi has raised its GDP growth target for 2026, from "around 5%" to "5%—5.5%", benefiting from industrial upgrades[4] Fiscal Revenue Targets - The average growth target for local general public budget revenue is 2.7%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2025[5] - 23 provinces have set their fiscal revenue growth targets between 2% and 4%, with Xinjiang having the highest target at 10%[6] - 19 provinces have maintained their fiscal revenue growth targets compared to 2025, while 9 provinces have lowered their targets[6] Economic Structure and Investment - Investment growth targets have been significantly reduced in debt-heavy provinces, with Gansu lowering its target from 5% to 4.5%[7] - Most provinces are shifting from investment-driven growth to consumption and innovation-driven growth, with Guangdong setting a target of 5% for investment growth[7] - The majority of provinces have lowered their social retail sales growth targets, indicating a need to boost consumer demand[8] Price and Employment Targets - Price targets remain consistent, anchored at around 2%, as provinces continue to face challenges with low demand and price stagnation[9] - Most provinces have kept their employment targets stable, reflecting a policy focus on job creation, with 20 provinces targeting an unemployment rate of around 5.5%[10]