Dongguan Securities·2026-02-13 07:33Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained), indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) showed stable year-on-year growth but significant month-on-month declines due to seasonal factors and policy changes regarding purchase tax and subsidies [4]. - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 40.3% in January, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points, but a month-on-month decrease of 12 percentage points [4]. - The production of power and energy storage batteries in January was 168 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 16.7% but a year-on-year increase of 55.9% [4]. - The sales of power and energy storage batteries were 148.8 GWh, with a month-on-month decline of 25.4% and a year-on-year increase of 85.1% [4]. - Energy storage battery sales accounted for 31% of total sales in January, with a year-on-year growth of 164% [4]. - The report anticipates a rebound in demand for lithium batteries post the Spring Festival, with a significant recovery in production expected in March [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Market - In January 2026, NEV production and sales were 1.041 million and 945,000 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 0.1%, but month-on-month declines of 39.4% and 44.7% [4]. - Domestic NEV sales were 643,000 units, down 18.9% year-on-year and 54.4% month-on-month [4]. - Exports of NEVs reached 302,000 units, doubling year-on-year and increasing by 0.5% month-on-month [4]. Battery Production and Sales - The total production of power and energy storage batteries was 168 GWh, with power batteries accounting for 102.7 GWh (69% of total sales) and energy storage batteries 46.1 GWh (31% of total sales) [4]. - The export volume of batteries was 24.1 GWh, with power batteries making up 17.7 GWh and energy storage batteries 6.4 GWh [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain, particularly in the solid-state battery sector, which is expected to drive demand for materials and equipment upgrades [4]. - Key companies to watch include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Keda Industrial, and others [4].