利率债周报：债市延续偏强震荡-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market continued to oscillate strongly. The 10Y Treasury bond yield was gradually testing downwards around 1.8%. After the Spring Festival, the market will enter the policy waiting period before the Two Sessions, and the pattern of interest - rate bonds oscillating within a range is expected to remain unchanged. The downward space for the 10Y Treasury bond yield is limited. Attention should be focused on varieties around 3Y and the opportunities for the narrowing of the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread and the 10Y term CDB - Treasury bond spread [22]. - In terms of inflation data, it is expected that in February 2026, both the year - on - year and month - on - month increases of CPI will expand, and the month - on - month increase of PPI may be similar to that in January, with the year - on - year decline further narrowing to around - 1.0% [9]. - The possibility of comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts remains limited. After the Spring Festival, it is difficult for the capital market to loosen significantly, and DR007 is expected to remain above 1.5% [20][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Event Review - In January 2026, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. The core inflation month - on - month increase reached the highest in the past six months, mainly due to the increase in holiday travel demand, the rise in international gold prices, and the boost from the new round of "trade - in" programs. The PPI year - on - year decline narrowed, and the month - on - month increase expanded. It is expected that in February 2026, both the year - on - year and month - on - month increases of CPI will expand, and the month - on - month increase of PPI may be similar to that in January, with the year - on - year decline further narrowing to around - 1.0% [9]. 3.2 Capital Price: Stable Capital Market Before the Festival - From February 6th to February 12th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital injection of 1.1 trillion yuan. The capital price was generally stable, with DR007 remaining below 1.6%, R007 remaining around 1.6%, and the 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit rate remaining basically unchanged [10]. 3.3 Primary Market: Slight Decrease in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From February 6th to February 12th, 96 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 964.3 billion yuan. The issuance scale of Treasury bonds increased, while the issuance scale of special bonds decreased slightly [12]. 3.4 Secondary Market: The Bond Market Continued to Oscillate Strongly - From February 6th to February 12th, the bond market continued its previous strong - oscillation feature, with an accelerating trend in the last two trading days. On the one hand, it was because the pre - festival capital pressure was relatively controllable; on the other hand, the central bank's fourth - quarter monetary policy implementation report indicated that it would regularly conduct Treasury bond trading operations, which affirmed the current operation state of Treasury bond yields to some extent. The 10Y Treasury bond yield was gradually testing downwards around 1.8%. In terms of the term structure, the short - end performance was weak, the decline of the Treasury bond yield around 7Y was relatively large, and the ultra - long - term Treasury bonds continued to recover [14]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Fundamentals: The 2026 Spring Festival holiday was extended to 9 days. The Ministry of Transport estimated that the cross - regional passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel season would reach 9.5 billion person - times, an increase of about 0.5 billion person - times compared with the 2025 Spring Festival travel season. The high - frequency consumption data during the holiday is expected to perform well. Although the current market environment is different from that around the 2025 Spring Festival, caution is still needed regarding the potential disturbances of unexpectedly high consumption data [21]. - Policy: The central bank's fourth - quarter monetary policy implementation report mentioned "fiscal and financial coordination to support the expansion of domestic demand". Currently, it focuses on the coordinated efforts of "re - loans + fiscal interest subsidies" and guarantee and other credit enhancement methods to implement a new round of "trade - in" programs and cultivate service consumption growth points. In this context, the possibility of comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts remains limited [20]. - Capital: After the Spring Festival, factors such as reserve requirements, tax payments, a large number of reverse repurchase maturities, and the end - of - month factor are superimposed. It is difficult for the capital market to loosen significantly, and DR007 is expected to remain above 1.5% [20].