新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝现货价格坚挺-20260213

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral investment ratings are neutral for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, while the arbitrage strategy is to go long on aluminum and short on aluminum alloy [8] Group 2: Core Views - For electrolytic aluminum, the downstream has entered the holiday period, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions and reduced absolute price fluctuations on the futures market. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in March. Social inventory is expected to exceed seasonal levels, exerting significant pressure on prices. Although there are expectations for the Two Sessions after the holiday, aluminum prices are unlikely to perform well due to the expected inventory pressure. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the long holiday approaches. In the long term, consumption resilience and strength are expected to remain positive, especially in the export market, and the macro - environment of simultaneous easing at home and abroad remains strong, making long - term aluminum prices more likely to rise than fall [6] - For alumina, India has completed a 30,000 - ton transaction at an FOB price of $311.5 per ton, with a price increase of $3.5 per ton compared to the previous period for March shipments. There may still be supply disruptions at an alumina plant in Hebei in the spot market. Although the impact on roasting volume is not high, the long - term contract gap may need to be filled through additional purchases. Coupled with the current substantial profits in electrolytic aluminum, the short - term spot price may remain firm. However, the actual domestic supply pressure has not eased, supply has not been substantially affected, and the pattern of static supply surplus remains unchanged, with social inventory continuing to increase. The prices of domestic northern ore have declined, the alumina plants' enthusiasm for ore procurement has decreased, and the import ore quotes are also falling, making it difficult for the cost side to provide strong support [6][7] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 23,350 yuan/ton, a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 160 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 23,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 40 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 23,430 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed by - 40 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,795 yuan/ton, closed at 23,610 yuan/ton, a change of 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 23,795 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 23,500 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 181,308 lots, and the open interest was 159,738 lots [2] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 892,000 tons, a change of 35,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 200,654 tons, a change of 33,088 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 483,550 tons, a change of - 2,200 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot - On February 12, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,670 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was $311 per ton [2] Alumina Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,850 yuan/ton, closed at 2,808 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton or - 0.35% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a maximum price of 2,855 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 261,414 lots, and the open interest was 296,788 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 12, 2026, the procurement price of Baotai civil - use primary aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 68,500 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 92,700 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,468 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 632 yuan/ton [5]