特朗普希望在一个月内与伊朗达成协议

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - Trump's military pressure on Iran is likely a threat to force concessions in negotiations rather than a real intention to start a war. The probability of a military strike has significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the year. If an agreement is reached between the US and Iran, the threat to the Strait of Hormuz will be eliminated, and oil prices will return to being driven by fundamentals [2] Summary by Relevant Content Market News and Key Data - WTI March crude oil futures closed down $1.79, or 2.77%, at $62.84 per barrel; Brent April crude oil futures closed down $1.88, or 2.71%, at $67.52 per barrel [1] - On February 12, the Kremlin proposed to "re - embrace the US dollar" as part of building a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration. The proposal involves potential cooperation in fossil energy investment and could reshape the global financial landscape [1] - On February 12, the IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day in January. OPEC's research department predicts a 1.38 - million - barrel - per - day increase in 2026 oil demand [1] - Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran in about a month and warns of "very serious" consequences if no agreement is reached. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu questions the enforceability of the agreement [1] Investment Logic - Trump's military pressure on Iran is a negotiation tactic. Due to the mid - term election pressure, the cost of attacking Iran is high, and the probability of a military strike has decreased. If an agreement is reached, oil prices will be driven by fundamentals [2] Strategy - Short - term: oil prices will fluctuate within a range. Due to high uncertainty in the Iran situation, risk prevention is necessary. Medium - term: short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: Sanctioned oil turning into compliant oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]