EG负荷仍高，江浙终端全面放假

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,723 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton or 1.09% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,630 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 0.90%. The spot basis in East China was - 116 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [1]. - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - $55/ton, up $3/ton; the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 923 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 93.5 million tons, up 3.8 million tons. The actual arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 11 million tons, and 3 million tons at the secondary ports. The planned arrivals from February 9th to 23rd were 18.1 million tons at the main ports and 5.8 million tons at the secondary ports [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level. There is still great pressure to build up inventory from January to February due to high supply and weakening demand. Satellite plans to switch production in February. Overseas supply pressure will ease around the end of February, but remains high from January to February. There will be a slight inventory draw in March. On the demand side, Spring Festival maintenance is being implemented, and the weaving and polyester loads are declining rapidly [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price and basis in East China, with data sources from Longzhong and CCF [1][5][7] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the gross profit and operating rate of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based ethylene glycol production, with data from Tonghuashun and Longzhong [9][13][15] 3.3 International Price Difference - The report provides the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR of ethylene glycol, sourced from Longzhong [16][19] 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Information on the sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips is presented, with data from CCF [17][20][22] 3.5 Inventory Data - It includes the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, and Shanghai + Changshu Port, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume in East China ports, with data from CCF and Longzhong [26][27][30]