下游整体开工环比上升

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall downstream start - up of propylene increased month - on - month. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand has a rigid support but may be limited due to cost pressure. The cost side is volatile, and the future trend mainly depends on the cost end and downstream demand [1][2] - For investment strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6225 yuan/ton (-47), the East China spot price is 6430 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price is 6445 yuan/ton (+0). The East China basis is 205 yuan/ton (+47), and the Shandong basis is 220 yuan/ton (+47) [1] - Figures related to this section include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, 03 - 04 contract spread, PL03 - 05 contract spread, and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][6][15] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene production capacity utilization rate is 73% (+1%), the China CFR - Japan naphtha CFR is 208 US dollars/ton (-5), and the import profit is - 387 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Figures related to this section include China CFR - Japan naphtha CFR, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH production capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery production capacity utilization rate, South Korea FOB - China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][31] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder production capacity utilization rate is 26% (-5.74%) with a production profit of - 245 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane production capacity utilization rate is 71% (+1%) with a production profit of - 352 yuan/ton (+20); n - butanol production capacity utilization rate is 86% (+1%) with a production profit of 242 yuan/ton (-180); octanol production capacity utilization rate is 95% (+4%) with a production profit of 88 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid production capacity utilization rate is 84% (+2%) with a production profit of 235 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile production capacity utilization rate is 72% (+3%) with a production profit of - 1252 yuan/ton (+0); phenol - acetone production capacity utilization rate is 89% (+3%) with a production profit of - 716 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Figures related to this section include the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][38][53] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene in - plant inventory is 43330 tons (+2860) [1] - Figures related to this section include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][63]