下游开工节前走弱

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. Although the "rush to export" has supported the spot, factors such as high social inventory, cost at a low - level compared to the same period, and high - level of warehouse receipts still exist. The long - term cost expectation of PVC has increased, and the future trend needs to focus on spot price acceptance, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [3] - The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The reduction of liquid chlorine price has strengthened the cost support, and the inventory in some areas has decreased. However, the demand side is generally weak, and the market purchasing power is insufficient. After the Spring Festival, the sentiment may improve with the resumption of work and restocking demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4938 yuan/ton (- 52), the East China basis is - 208 yuan/ton (+ 42), and the South China basis is - 98 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4840 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2945 yuan/ton (+ 15), the calcium carbide profit is 67 yuan/ton (+ 15), the production gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method is - 698 yuan/ton (- 39), the production gross profit of PVC ethylene method is 129 yuan/ton (+ 26), and the PVC export profit is 15.4 US dollars/ton (+ 0.2) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), the social inventory of PVC is 61.4 tons (+ 2.1), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 80.78% (+ 0.41%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene method is 73.69% (+ 0.44%), and the overall operation rate of PVC is 78.62% (+ 0.41%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 101.3 tons (- 5.8) [1] Market Analysis - The cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC since April 1 has led to strong export orders before, but recently the export orders have declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream operation rate has decreased significantly before the Spring Festival, and the social inventory has increased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period. The cost of upstream chlor - alkali production has been slightly repaired, and the calcium carbide price has increased slightly, while the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still hedging pressure on the disk [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 1958 yuan/ton (+ 4), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 83 yuan/ton (+ 27) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 600 yuan/ton (+ 10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1000 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 858 yuan/ton (+ 31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 97.3 yuan/ton (+ 31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 525.71 yuan/ton (+ 10.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 44.29 tons (- 2.85), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.78 tons (+ 0.02), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 87.60% (- 0.20%) [2] - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.06% (- 0.71%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 0.00% (- 27.91%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.28% (- 0.15%) [2] Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, the downstream of liquid chlorine has reduced its load, the price of liquid chlorine has further decreased, the cost support of chlor - alkali has strengthened, and enterprises are more willing to support the price of caustic soda. Some spot prices of caustic soda have increased slightly. Although the current operation rate of caustic soda enterprises is high, the decrease in comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has increased the market's expectation of caustic soda maintenance, and short - sellers have reduced their positions, leading to a rebound in the disk. The low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing sentiment, and the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased. However, the current demand side of caustic soda has a general receiving sentiment, the alumina plant has partially overhauled, the operation rate has decreased slightly, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The non - aluminum operation rate has decreased before the Spring Festival, and there has been some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing at low prices, but the subsequent purchasing behavior has weakened. The export orders have improved slightly. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the disk [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]