假期临近，铅价持续盘整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, both supply and demand in the lead market decline, with logistics halted and enterprises on holiday, resulting in light trading. Inventory is transferred to social warehouses, and it is expected that inventory will accumulate significantly after the festival, leading to a weak and volatile lead price [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On February 12, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.07 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 16,575 yuan per ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to 0.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,625 yuan per ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan per ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,650 yuan per ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan per ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 9,850 yuan per ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan per ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On February 12, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,800 yuan per ton and closed at 16,695 yuan per ton, a decrease of 45 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 29,928 lots, a decrease of 48 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 32,162 lots, a decrease of 5,898 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,805 yuan per ton and a minimum of 16,685 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,700 yuan per ton and closed at 16,705 yuan per ton, a 0.30% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On February 12, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 54,000 tons, a change of 4,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 232,900 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is advisable to conduct sell hedging operations when the price returns above 16,900 yuan per ton, but the position should not be too heavy approaching the Spring Festival [3] Option Strategy - Sell a wide straddle [4]