2025年财政数据回顾与2026年财政政策展望

Group 1 - The report indicates that the fiscal policy for 2025 was more proactive, with a general public budget deficit increasing by 1 percentage point to 4%, and the broad fiscal deficit reaching a historical high of 12.1 trillion yuan [2][3] - In 2025, the broad fiscal revenue decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a shortfall of 640 billion yuan compared to the initial budget, primarily due to pressures from real estate adjustments and insufficient domestic demand [3][4] - The report forecasts that in 2026, broad fiscal expenditure growth will accelerate to 3.3%, driven by a recovery in fiscal revenue and a slight expansion in government bond issuance, with the broad deficit rate expected to decrease from 8.6% in 2025 to 8.2% [2][42] Group 2 - The report highlights that the decline in broad fiscal revenue was exacerbated by a drop in real estate and weak domestic demand, with total fiscal revenue falling by 2.9% to 27.4 trillion yuan in 2025, which is equivalent to 0.6% of GDP [3][4] - Tax revenue, which constitutes 81.6% of general public budget revenue, grew by only 0.8% in 2025, significantly below the budget target of 3.7%, leading to a shortfall of 509.7 billion yuan [4][6] - The report notes that the macro tax burden rate further declined, with general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP dropping from 16.3% in 2024 to 15.7% in 2025, indicating a need for sustainable fiscal expenditure in the future [6][40] Group 3 - The report states that fiscal expenditure growth in 2025 rebounded, with total expenditure increasing by 3.7% to 40.0 trillion yuan, supported by local government special bonds and special treasury bonds [17][18] - The structure of fiscal expenditure is shifting towards "investment in people," with increased allocations for social security, employment, and healthcare, reflecting a focus on enhancing public welfare [19][20] - The report anticipates that the fiscal policy for 2026 will continue to emphasize "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with a focus on optimizing expenditure structure and ensuring that total expenditure does not decrease [42][46]