人民币升破6.9关口，关注美国1月CPI数据

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall inflation narrative remains unchanged. The domestic policy trend of boosting inflation is clear, and only economic recession and interest rate hike expectations can be observed as points for a complete reversal of the trend. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against market fluctuations, and it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh's policy combination of "interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" led to significant declines in silver, gold, and put pressure on Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks. The core driver overseas is Trump's policies, and the implementation of balance sheet reduction requires more aggressive interest rate cuts [2]. - The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path, raising the deficit forecast for the next decade by $1.4 trillion, partly due to Trump's 2025 tax law and immigration policies [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The central bank cut interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools, and the Ministry of Finance issued policies to support multiple loan fields [3]. - China's January CPI同比涨幅 fell to 0.2%, and PPI同比 decline narrowed to 1.4%. The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the 6.90 mark [3]. - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, with strong employment data. The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, and Japan's long - term government bond yields declined [3]. Commodity Analysis - In the short term, be vigilant against market fluctuations. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector remain unrelieved, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment. OPEC+ plans to keep oil production stable in March, but there are long - term threats from Venezuela's production increase. Some chemical varieties are relatively resistant to decline, and agricultural products need to focus on weather and pig diseases, while the black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [5]. Important News - The CBO warned that Trump's fiscal path is unsustainable, raising the US deficit forecast for 2026 - 35 by $1.4 trillion. The debt - to - GDP ratio may break the record in 2030 [6]. - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 100 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on February 13 [6]. - The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above 6.90, the first time since May 2023 [6]. - Japan's 30 - year and 40 - year government bond yields declined [6]. - Trump said that reaching an agreement with Iran is the US's "preferred" option, but no substantial results were achieved in the meeting with Netanyahu [6].