新能源及有色金属日报：下游加工快速回落-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$17.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,480 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 10 yuan per ton to 24,450 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,430 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,750 yuan per ton and closed at 24,650 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,396 lots, and the open interest was 51,593 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,775 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,415 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 160,400 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [3]