液化石油气日报：部分装置重启，PDH开工率边际回升-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. It is recommended to maintain a light position before the Spring Festival and pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The operating rate of PDH has marginally increased due to the restart of some devices, but there is still a gap compared to the previous level. The overseas supply has tightened marginally, and the external market has phased support, but there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost suppresses the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk. During the Spring Festival, the main uncertainty in the market comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between Iran and the United States escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supply, which is a potential upward risk factor for the disk. Otherwise, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On February 12, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market, 4380 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3740 - 4200 yuan/ton; North China market, 4150 - 4460 yuan/ton; East China market, 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4590 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 638 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4878 yuan/ton for propane and 4802 yuan/ton for butane, both down 37 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 628 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4802 yuan/ton for propane and 4726 yuan/ton for butane, down 37 yuan/ton and 36 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The CP propane - butane swap in the external market had a correction yesterday, while the domestic LPG spot price remained stable overall with partial increases. The East China spot market was mainly stable, with sellers having a low willingness to adjust prices before the festival, and the trading atmosphere was mediocre. The East China market is still at a low level considering the main delivery areas of PG futures. Recently, the overseas supply has tightened marginally, especially in the United States where production and inventory have significantly declined due to the cold wave, providing phased support to the external market. However, there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost has suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. This week, the restart of some devices has driven the operating rate up to 65%, but it is still far from the previous level of 75%. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk, especially for the main PG2603 contract, where the pressure of concentrated warrant cancellation will be more obvious [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran and maintain a light position before the festival. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]