石油沥青日报：成本端支撑仍存，注意假期外盘波动-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [2] - Intertemporal: None [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost side of asphalt still has support, but attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the overseas market during the holiday. The geopolitical situation, especially the unclear situation in Iran, may cause significant fluctuations in overseas oil prices during the holiday, affecting the opening of crude oil and asphalt futures after the festival. The raw material substitution of domestic refineries is in progress, and the pattern is expected to be clearer after the holiday. Although there is no absolute bottleneck in raw material substitution, the cost increase is likely inevitable. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, the supply of alternative raw materials will face greater threats, and there is still an upward risk in the market [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,327 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous settlement price. The position was 30,915 lots, a decrease of 10,276 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 45,617 lots, a decrease of 13,315 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt were 3,506 - 3,700 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,210 - 3,250 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,290 - 3,350 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,250 - 3,280 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northeast and Shandong regions increased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply and demand in the domestic asphalt spot market are both weak, and the prices fluctuate slightly [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2]. - Intertemporal: No relevant strategy [2]. - Cross-variety: No relevant strategy [2]. - Spot-futures: No relevant strategy [2]. - Options: No relevant strategy [2].