供需持续博弈，价格波动有限

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply contraction provides price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply contraction in February provides price support, but downstream cost drags down demand, and the large inventory is being reduced slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 12, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,375 yuan/ton and closed at 8,335 yuan/ton, a change of (-35) yuan/ton or (-0.42)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 307,764 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 11, 2026 was 19,317 lots, a change of 1,200 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, and large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, so the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Polysilicon - On February 12, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and rose. It opened at 48,840 yuan/ton and closed at 49,015 yuan/ton, a 0.44% change in the closing price from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 37,702 (38,313 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 4,540 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon slightly declined. N - type material was 48.50 - 58.00 (-0.40) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.90, with a 2.30% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 6.14% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100.00 tons, with a 0.00% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, a - 3.18% month - on - month change [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.13 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.43 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece [3] - The prices of battery chips were stable. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery chips were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery chips were about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4] - The mainstream transaction prices of components were stable. PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [4] Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5]