风险仍未消退，注意假期外盘波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Cross - product: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy sector's recent fluctuations are significantly affected by the Iran situation, and the situation is still unclear. During the Spring Festival holiday, changes in the situation and news may lead to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, which will be transmitted to the post - holiday market, so risks should be noted before the holiday [1] - From the perspective of its own fundamentals, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has been running strongly recently, with good downstream marine fuel demand, and the raw material substitution of Venezuelan oil by domestic refineries has also promoted the import demand for fuel oil. However, there is no shortage expectation in the market. Russia's shipments increased significantly in January, which will lead to an increase in arrivals in Asia in February. Overall, under the premise of relatively controllable geopolitical situations, the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil do not have the momentum to strengthen continuously. In a high - freight environment, over - valuation will suppress downstream refinery demand. If the Iran situation deteriorates further, high - sulfur fuel oil, as the main product of Iran's exports, has a relatively prominent risk exposure [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current fundamental contradictions are not obvious. Due to the resumption of production at the Azur refinery, Kuwait's shipments were relatively high in January, but the overall pressure is relatively limited, and it mainly follows the fluctuations of the crude oil end in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,888 yuan/ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 3,349 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, avoid geopolitical risks as much as possible, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, avoid geopolitical risks as much as possible, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2] Figures and Data - There are multiple figures showing the prices, spreads, closing prices of futures contracts, and trading volumes and open interests of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as the fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures in China, with corresponding units such as US dollars/ton and yuan/ton, and hand [3]