特朗普预计4月初访华，贵金属再现调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the turmoil in the US stock market, market risk sentiment has emerged, and the demand for gold investment may slightly weaken. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the near term, but the bullish logic remains unchanged, maintaining a cautiously bullish view. The Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1050 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 18500 yuan/kilogram and 21500 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The Sino-US trade "truce" is expected to be extended. In the stock market, concerns about AI eroding corporate profits led to a sharp decline in the US stock market, causing a broad sell - off in risk assets. Technology stocks led the decline, with the Nasdaq down more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3%. Gold and silver also suffered heavy losses under risk - aversion sentiment, with spot gold down more than 4% and spot silver down more than 11% at one point [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 12, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1133.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1126.12 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.38% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1123.94 yuan/gram and closed at 1100.96 yuan/gram, a 2.23% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 21718.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20626.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 1.52% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 509006 lots, and the open interest was 198505 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20400 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19188 yuan/kilogram, a 6.97% decline from the afternoon close [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.096%, down 7.42 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.65%, up 1.81 basis points from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 4046 lots and the short positions decreased by 2712 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 324449 lots, a 14.97% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 9695 lots and the short positions decreased by 8203 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1109141 lots, a 2.31% change from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1081.32 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16236 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 12, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 3.89 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 138.31 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 54.60, a 1.16% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 58.89, a - 4.01% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamentals - On February 12, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 24712 kilograms, a - 14.71% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 220352 kilograms, a - 5.23% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [8]