中国房地产行业展望，2026 年 2 月

Investment Rating - The report maintains a negative outlook on the real estate industry, indicating a slight improvement in overall credit quality over the next 12 to 18 months, but it has not yet reached a stable level [4][6]. Core Insights - The real estate industry in China is expected to continue facing downward pressure on sales and investment in 2026, although the pace of decline is anticipated to slow down. The policy environment is likely to shift towards a more normalized implementation phase, with a potential turning point in unsold housing inventory [4][6]. - The report highlights that while the sales scale of the real estate market has seen a narrowing decline, the industry remains in a deep adjustment phase, with significant volatility expected among mid-tier and lower-tier companies based on their resource acquisition and inventory management capabilities [4][6]. - The financing policies have transitioned from short-term emergency measures to a long-term development mechanism, with a cautious approach expected in 2026. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the short-term repayment pressures faced by non-state-owned enterprises [25][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The real estate sector has been in a state of adjustment since 2025, with a reduction in policy intensity compared to the previous year. The sales scale has contracted less sharply, and inventory reduction has made some progress, indicating a phase of stabilization [8][10]. - The report notes that the demand for housing is expected to weaken due to demographic trends, with a declining birth rate and an increasing proportion of elderly individuals in the population [10][11]. - The average disposable income of residents increased by 5.0% in 2025, but the overall purchasing confidence remains low due to the industry's downturn and uncertainties regarding housing delivery [10][11]. Sample Company Performance - The report analyzes the performance of the top 30 real estate companies, noting that their sales volume has decreased, but the rate of decline has slowed. The overall industry is entering a phase of bottoming out and differentiation [35][36]. - The average total assets of sample companies have continued to decline, but the rate of decline has shown signs of easing. The report indicates that the focus is shifting from scale reduction to optimizing the quality of existing assets [39][40]. - The average gross profit margin has shown initial signs of stabilization, with some companies demonstrating strong recovery capabilities in profitability [35][44]. Policy Environment - The report outlines that the policy framework for the real estate industry in 2025 focused on stabilizing the market, promoting transformation, and preventing risks, with a notable reduction in short-term demand stimulation measures [9][18]. - The financing environment has shifted towards a more structured approach, with the "white list" policy becoming a regular feature, aimed at avoiding excessive short-term stimulus [25][34]. - The report anticipates that the financing policies will remain cautious in 2026, with a focus on long-term stability and risk prevention [25][34].