煤焦日报：多空僵持，煤焦区间运行-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, the spot market shows that the latest quoted price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port's flat - closing price index is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68%. Recently, there is no significant change in the coke fundamentals, with both supply and demand slightly increasing at a low level. The futures lack unilateral momentum, and it is expected that the main coke contract will maintain a low - level oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. The subsequent uncertainties mainly come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6][32] - For coking coal, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,230.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.50%. As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines are on holiday, resulting in a short - term contraction of coking coal supply. However, downstream enterprises have replenished their coal stocks to a sufficient level, and coal mine production will quickly resume after the festival. Overall, the fundamentals of coking coal provide limited support, and the medium - and long - term expectation of loose supply and demand remains an important factor guiding coal price trends. Combining with the recent low - level stabilization of thermal coal prices, in the absence of medium - and long - term drivers, it is expected that coking coal prices will maintain a low - level oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. The bullish risks mainly include three aspects: the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict during the Spring Festival; the approaching of the important policy node of the National Two Sessions after the Spring Festival; and the possible introduction of new "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to the continuous low - level operation of coal prices [7][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - On February 13, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in January 2026, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally narrowed, while the year - on - year prices decreased. In January, the month - on - month sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3%, the same as the previous month. Among them, the price in Shanghai remained flat, while those in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively [9] - On February 13, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal (A9, V28 - 37, S1.0, G75, Mt8) was 93.7 US dollars/ton, and all 64,000 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of 96.7 US dollars/ton (all prices are tax - free). The supply location is the customs supervision area at Ganqimaodu Port, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being May 14, 2026 [10] 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Comparison | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Flat - Closing) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 1.30% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Ex - Warehouse) | 1,470 | - 0.68% | 0.00% | - 9.26% | - 2.65% | | Mongolian Coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,230 | 2.50% | - 0.81% | 4.24% | 6.03% | | Australian - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,620 | - 2.41% | 0.62% | 8.72% | 11.72% | | Shanxi - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,700 | - 4.49% | - 4.49% | 11.11% | 14.09% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | 1 | 1,682.0 | 105.0 | 1,682.0 | 1,651.5 | 14,281 | 4,287 | 35,250 | - 2,273 | | Coking Coal | 1 | 1,121.0 | - 31.0 | 1,128.5 | 1,110.0 | 461,599 | - 67,231 | 412,479 | - 54,413 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][16] - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, all - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills over the years [19][21][22] - Other Charts: Include domestic steel - mill production situation, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [27][28][30]