国债期货日报-20260213

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On February 12, 2026, the Treasury bond futures contracts of different tenors on the China Financial Futures Exchange showed divergent trends. The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, and multiple factors need to be monitored [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On February 12, 2026, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose slightly, the 2 - year contract fell, and the 5 - year contract was basically flat. The overall market trading was active, and the capital side remained loose [2][3]. - The 10 - year main contract opened at 108.565 yuan, closed at 108.585 yuan, up 0.025 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 72,102 lots, and the open interest was 184,151 lots, a decrease of 17,988 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - year main contract opened at 106.085 yuan and closed at 106.065 yuan, basically flat (+0.005 yuan). The trading volume was 63,267 lots, and the open interest was 74,846 lots, a decrease of 12,640 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 2 - year main contract opened at 102.456 yuan and closed at 102.458 yuan, down 0.02 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,644 lots, and the open interest was 34,819 lots, a decrease of 8,746 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Domestic Market Factors - Liquidity was loose. The central bank conducted 166.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40% unchanged. The net investment on the day was 448 billion yuan, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined [3][4]. - On February 12, 2026, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.356%, 1.5366%, 1.7894%, and 2.246% respectively. The yield curve steepened, and the long - end yield was relatively stable, supporting long - term Treasury bond futures [4]. 3.2.2 International Market Factors - US economic data showed that the non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 people in January, much higher than the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. The market adjusted its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, and the first cut may be postponed to June or July [4]. - Global monetary policies were divergent. The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, and the RBA governor said it would raise interest rates again if inflation persisted. This increased the uncertainty of international capital flows and indirectly affected the domestic bond market [4]. 3.3 Short - term Market Outlook - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market may maintain a volatile pattern. Factors to be concerned about include monetary policy trends, changes in the capital side, the impact of US monetary policy, and economic fundamental data [5][6]. - Technically, the 10 - year main contract oscillated in the range of 108.5 - 108.7 yuan, and it was necessary to watch whether it could break through the upper limit. The 5 - year and 2 - year contracts were expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations, and market trading may gradually shift to new main contracts [6].