有色日报：有色偏弱震荡-20260213

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪铜: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract price of Shanghai copper oscillated around the 100,000 mark, and the trading volume decreased slightly. Macroscopically, the US stock market declined overseas, and domestic liquidity was poor approaching the Spring Festival. Industrially, most downstream enterprises had taken holidays approaching the Spring Festival, resulting in dull trading [7]. - 沪铝: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, Shanghai aluminum decreased in price with a reduction in positions, and the main contract price dropped back to the 23,000 mark. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas liquidity was poor, and the capital driving force was weak. Industrially, domestic electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate stocks seasonally. Technically, the aluminum price tested the 23,000 mark three times in February, showing strong technical support [8]. - 沪镍: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly, with a continuous decline in positions. The main contract price rebounded at the end of the session and regained the 135,000 mark. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas liquidity was poor, and the capital driving force was weak. Industrially, on February 10, the Indonesian government announced that the production target for nickel ore in 2026 was set between 260 and 270 million tons. The positive news on the supply side largely made the nickel price stronger than the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term. However, the non - ferrous metal sector declined last night driven by precious metals, and the nickel price followed suit. In the short term, with macro - level negative factors and industry - level positive factors, the nickel price will oscillate [9]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: From February 6th to February 12th, the raw material inventory of SMM copper cable enterprises decreased by 3.37% week - on - week as the pre - festival stocking was basically completed and upstream suppliers gradually took holidays. On the finished product side, enterprises moderately stocked up for post - festival demand, but the stocking mentality was cautious due to the uncertainty of the copper price after the Spring Festival, and there was no large - scale inventory build - up. The operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry decreased by 12.43 percentage points week - on - week, and SMM expected it to drop by 43.56 percentage points to 13.08% week - on - week due to enterprises taking holidays next week [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warrant inventory, and month - to - month spread of Shanghai copper [12][13][17]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - to - month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][32]. - Nickel: The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel month - to - month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].