钢材&铁矿石日报：产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱运行-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - 螺纹钢: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily increase of 0.13%. The pre - holiday situation of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The fundamental contradictions of rebar continued to accumulate, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factors were policy expectations and cost support. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the resumption rhythm of short - process steel mills after the holiday [5]. - 热轧卷板: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily decline of 0%. The supply pressure of hot - rolled coils did not subside, while demand continued to weaken seasonally. The fundamentals were weak, and prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factor was the post - holiday policy expectation. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the demand recovery after the holiday [5]. - 铁矿石: The main contract price declined weakly, recording a daily decline of 2.36%. Currently, iron ore demand improved, while supply contracted in the short term. The fundamentals of ore changed, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. Under the weak reality, ore prices continued to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of finished products during the holiday and the shipping situation of mines [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Real Estate: In January, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was 0.3%, the same as last month; the decline in second - tier cities was 0.3%, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points; the decline in third - tier cities was 0.4%, the same as last month. The month - on - month decline in second - hand residential sales prices in first - tier cities was 0.5%, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points; the declines in second - and third - tier cities were 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, narrowing by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points [7]. - Shipbuilding: Hengli Shipbuilding (Dalian) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co., Ltd., signed contracts for 17 ships, with a contract value of approximately 1.6 - 1.8 billion US dollars (about 11.041 - 12.421 billion RMB) [8]. - Steel: Fujian Province announced the list of restricted smelting equipment of steel enterprises subject to differential electricity prices in 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel Products: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coils (4.75mm) were 3,304 yuan and 3,279 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billets was 2,900 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 50 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,030 yuan [10]. - Iron Ore: The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 746 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 yuan. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.81 yuan and 23.39 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price was 100.05, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 99.60 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,055 | 0.13 | 555,957 | 1,942,442 | | Hot - Rolled Coils | 3,222 | 0.00 | 277,887 | 1,482,223 | | Iron Ore | 746.0 | - 2.36 | 239,453 | 494,550 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - Steel Inventory: The report presented the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils [14][15][20]. - Iron Ore Inventory: It showed the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including inventory and its seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [24][25][26]. - Steel Mill Production: The report included the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [29][31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - 螺纹钢: Supply and demand continued to weaken, inventory increased significantly, and short - process steel mills significantly reduced production. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 22.52 tons. Demand was also weak, and the high - frequency demand index was at the lowest level in the same lunar calendar period in recent years. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [37]. - 热轧卷板: Supply and demand continued to weaken seasonally, inventory increased, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.40 tons. Demand continued to weaken, and the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 9.35 tons. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation [38]. - 铁矿石: The supply - demand pattern changed. Steel mills resumed production before the holiday, and ore terminal consumption continued to rise. However, steel mill profitability was poor, and the increase in ore demand was limited. Overseas supply contracted in the short term, but the sustainability was weak. Ore prices continued to decline under pressure [39].