Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Rubber: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price closed 1.42% lower at 16,315 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 120 yuan/ton. The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, trading between bulls and bears has become cautious. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - Methanol: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,248 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,187 yuan/ton, closing 2.45% lower at 2,188 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 32 yuan/ton. Dominated by a weak supply - demand fundamental, trading between bulls and bears has become cautious, and methanol futures may maintain a weakly volatile trend [7]. - Crude Oil: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and falling significantly. The futures price rose to a maximum of 475.7 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 454.4 yuan/barrel, closing 4.22% lower at 460.7 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cools down and the peak season for crude oil demand comes to an end, crude oil has gradually weakened. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the external market during the Spring Festival holiday and the geopolitical risk situation in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons and a growth rate of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, with a growth rate of 2.78%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises stopped work, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at a low point for the year [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Compared with the previous month, they decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve. The China Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) in January 2026 was 51.2%, slightly down 1.2 percentage points month - on - month but still in the expansion range above 50%. In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a significant increase of about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.30%, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.68%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.50%, and a significant increase of 6.11% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0568 million tons, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,300 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all decreased slightly week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.21%, with a week - on - week small increase of 1.21 percentage points and a month - on - month small increase of 1.62%. As of February 13, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 71 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week slight decline of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 942,700 tons, with a week - on - week small decrease of 18,700 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small increase of 43,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total domestic inland methanol inventory reached 340,300 tons, with a week - on - week small decrease of 28,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, with a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels/day and a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small increase of 969,000 barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 124,565 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 27,583 contracts and a significant increase of 51,751 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with a growth rate of 71.07%. As of February 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 244,306 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 26,344 contracts and a significant increase of 59,860 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with a growth rate of 32.45% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,250 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 16,315 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | - 65 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,222 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | 2,188 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | + 34 yuan/ton | + 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 456.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 460.7 yuan/barrel | - 16.1 yuan/barrel | - 3.9 yuan/barrel | + 15.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (including rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (including methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc.) [16][29][44]
橡胶甲醇原油：多空交投谨慎能化震荡偏弱
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2026-02-13 09:00