宏观经济周报：海外非农增长，国内通胀回升-20260213

Group 1: U.S. Economic Overview - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December 2025, with the control group retail sales showing a negative month-on-month growth, indicating high living costs suppressing consumption among low- and middle-income groups[1] - Non-farm employment rebounded unexpectedly, reversing the weak trend seen at the end of 2025, with private sector jobs supported mainly by education and healthcare, while financial and information sectors continued to decline due to AI substitution effects[1] - The unemployment rate decreased despite an increase in labor participation rate, with a slight rise in hourly wage growth, although the overall employment data may still be overestimated[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-on-month growth remained flat, with food prices slowing down but pork prices turning positive; core CPI continued to rise due to the upcoming Spring Festival[3] - Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an upward trend, with price changes in crude oil and non-ferrous metals causing a divergence in PPI growth across industries, while "anti-involution" policies positively impacted sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries[3] - Real estate transactions remained at a low point, with wholesale agricultural prices declining, and prices for steel and cement slightly decreasing, while upstream prices for coking coal and coking fell, and prices for non-ferrous metals and gold generally declined[3]