新能源及有色金属日报：昨日美股大跌情况下，铜价亦受影响-20260213

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Sell put options [9] 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand continues to decline, and the price of precious metals remains volatile. The price of copper may range from RMB 97,800/ton to RMB 106,600/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 12, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at RMB 103,620/ton and closed at RMB 102,330/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at RMB 102,030/ton and closed at RMB 100,030/ton, a 2.58% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of RMB 100 - RMB 20/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of RMB 60/ton, a RMB 10/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price ranged from RMB 101,840 - RMB 102,240/ton. The 2602 contract showed a W-shaped oscillation and closed at RMB 101,950/ton. With the Spring Festival approaching, the market was quiet, and the supply - demand imbalance was expected to widen the spot discount [2]. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet him. The Sino - US trade "cease - fire" is expected to be extended. Due to investors' concerns about AI eroding corporate profits, the US stock market tumbled, causing copper prices to decline [3]. Mining End - In 2025, Congo (Kinshasa)'s copper exports increased from 3.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons, a 9.7% year - on - year increase, solidifying its status as the world's second - largest copper producer. Chinese - funded enterprises play a major role in Congo's copper production [4]. Smelting and Import - In January, the proportion of Chinese - produced copper in LME's available inventory decreased due to inflows from other countries. The absolute inventory of Chinese - produced copper in LME warehouses increased from 87,475 tons in December to 95,150 tons at the end of January [5]. Consumption - As the Spring Festival nears, spot trading is light. The output and capacity utilization rate of copper rods in January 2026 decreased compared to December. Different regions showed different trends in production volume [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,000 tons to 196,650 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 8,282 tons to 187,179 tons. On February 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 353,600 tons, a change of 22,300 tons from the previous week [7][8]