瑞达期货农业气象周报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a weekly agricultural meteorological analysis, covering the weather conditions and growth stages of various crops in different regions at home and abroad. It also includes ENSO forecasts, which are crucial for understanding the potential impact on crop growth and harvest [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Meteorological Concerns - Domestic: Most domestic crop harvests are completed. The weather is favorable for the growth of rapeseed and winter wheat [5]. - International: The soybean harvest in the US is over. In South America, soybean sowing is finished, and the crops are in the growing stage. Early - sown soybeans in Brazil have started to be harvested. As of February 7, the soybean filling rate in Brazil's 25/26 season is 38.8%, the maturity rate is 25.6%, and the harvest rate is 17.4%. In the next 15 days, the western part of the central - western soybean - producing areas in Brazil will have less rainfall than normal, while the eastern part will have more. Most areas will have normal temperatures. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Province will have less rainfall than normal, while most other major producing areas will have more. The northern part of Santiago - del Estero Province will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and other areas will have normal temperatures. In Europe, key producing areas will have more rainfall and higher temperatures than normal. In Indonesia and Malaysia, heavy rainfall will affect palm fruit picking [5]. - ENSO Forecast: The probability of La Nina is 69% from January to March, 86% from February to April, and 88% from March to May [5]. 3.2 Meteorological Analysis of Each Crop - Producing Area 3.2.1 Soybean - Domestic: In Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia), soybean production accounts for over 60% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui), soybean production accounts for over 15% of the total, and the harvest is also completed [9]. - US: The soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part. The 2025/26 US soybean harvest is over, with a production of 115.75 million tons, lower than the previous year's 119.05 million tons. In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will be lower than normal, and the precipitation will be higher than normal. As of September 23, about 37% (+1) of the soybean - producing areas were in a drought state, and the drought situation has worsened compared to the previous week and the same period last year [24][29][33]. - Brazil: The soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central - western part. As of February 7, the sowing rate of the 25/26 season is 99.7%, the harvest progress is 17.4%. The US Department of Agriculture estimates the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production to be 180 million tons. In the next 15 days, the western part of the central - western soybean - producing areas will have less rainfall than normal, and the eastern part will have more, which will affect the crop harvest [37][41]. - Argentina: The soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part, accounting for about 12% of the world's production. As of early February, the soybean sowing is completed, and the crops are in the growing stage. The US Department of Agriculture expects the 2025/26 production to be 48.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In the next 15 days, the Buenos Aires Province will have less rainfall than normal, and most other major producing areas will have more. The northern part of Santiago - del Estero Province will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and other areas will have normal temperatures, which is beneficial to soil moisture [46][47][53]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed - Domestic: In the Northwest and North China, spring rapeseed production accounts for about 10% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southwest, winter rapeseed is in the budding and bolting stage, and the current conditions are suitable [57][58]. - Canada: Canada is the world's largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 22% of the global production. The rapeseed harvest is completed. The Canadian Statistics Bureau estimates that the rapeseed sowing area in 2025 will be 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from 2024. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in the three major provinces will have normal rainfall and higher - than - normal temperatures [72][78]. - EU: The EU is the world's second - largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 20% of the global production. Rapeseed is in the growing stage. The consulting agency Strategic Grains estimates that the 2025/26 rapeseed production in the 27 EU countries will be 19 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season. In the next 15 days, the key producing areas in Europe will have more rainfall and higher temperatures than normal [82][83][88]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - Indonesia and Malaysia: The main palm - oil - producing areas in Indonesia are Sumatra and Kalimantan. In Malaysia, the producing areas are concentrated in Sarawak, Sabah, Pahang, Johor, and Perak. Currently, heavy rainfall in both countries will affect palm fruit picking. The probability of La Nina is 86% from February to April [94][97][102]. 3.2.4 Other Crops - Corn: In Northeast China, spring corn production accounts for over 40% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, summer corn production accounts for over 30% of the total, and both spring and summer corn harvests are completed. In the Southwest, corn production accounts for about 10% of the total, and both spring and summer corn harvests are completed [113][114][115]. - Cotton: In Xinjiang, cotton production accounts for about 90% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, cotton production accounts for about 6% of the total, and the harvest is completed [129][130]. - Apple: In the Bohai Bay region, apple production accounts for about 33% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Northwest Loess Plateau region, apple production accounts for about 60% of the total, and the harvest is completed [143][144]. - Jujube: In Xinjiang, jujube production accounts for about 50% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Loess Plateau region (Shanxi, Shaanxi) and the Huang - Huai - Hai region, jujube production accounts for over 20% of the total respectively, and the harvests are completed [157]. - Sugarcane: In Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong, sugarcane production accounts for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total respectively, and the crops are in the harvest period, with suitable current conditions [169]. - Beet: In Xinjiang, beet production accounts for about 39% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In North China, beet production accounts for about 57% of the total, and the harvest is completed [183]. - Peanut: In Northeast China, peanut production accounts for about 10% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, peanut production accounts for over 60% of the total, and both spring and summer peanut harvests are completed. In the South China region, peanut production accounts for over 10% of the total, and both spring and autumn peanut harvests are completed [197][198][199]. - Wheat: In Northwest China, wheat production accounts for over 10% of the total, mainly spring wheat. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, wheat production accounts for over 80% of the total, mainly winter wheat, which is in the over - wintering period, and the current conditions are suitable [213][214]. - Rice: In Northeast China, japonica rice production accounts for about 20% of the total, and the single - season rice harvest is completed. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, single - and double - season rice coexist, and the early - season rice, single - season rice, and late - season rice harvests are completed. In the Southwest, single - season double - cropping rice is the main type, and the single - season rice harvest is completed. In South China, double - season indica rice is planted, and both early - season and late - season rice harvests are completed [228].