碳酸锂市场周报：长假将至供需双减，锂价或将震荡运行-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 14.84% and an amplitude of 15.06%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 152,640 yuan/ton. In the future, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, both supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market will decrease, and the inventory in the industry will gradually decline. It is expected that demand will pick up again after downstream enterprises resume work after the holiday. The report suggests light - position trading with a focus on controlling risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market Performance: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile upward trend, with a price increase of 14.84% and an amplitude of 15.06%. The closing price of the main contract was 152,640 yuan/ton [5]. - Macro - economic Data: In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline in the year - on - year figure narrowing by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4% [5]. - Fundamentals: Lithium ore prices fluctuated with lithium carbonate prices. Miners were willing to sell, but smelters were cautious. The supply decreased due to the approaching holiday and logistics suspension. Demand was weak as pre - holiday purchases were completed and the market was on holiday. The overall market is expected to be in a situation of double - decline in supply and demand, with inventory gradually decreasing and demand expected to pick up after the holiday [5]. - Investment Advice: Light - position trading with a focus on controlling risks [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate was 152,640 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19,720 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 8,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,200 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot Price: As of February 13, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 143,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9,250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 8,890 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,470 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of February 13, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was $1,950/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $45/ton. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9016, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56% [21]. - Lithium Mica: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (2.0% - 3%) was 6,350 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week [28]. - Phosphorus Lithium Aluminum Stone: As of February 13, 2026, the average price of phosphorus lithium aluminum stone was 14,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4 Industry Supply and Demand - Supply Side: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1933.47 tons (8.77%) and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.66 tons (20.11%) and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 59,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2650 tons (4.66%) and a year - on - year increase of 69.29%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of February 13, 2026, the average price was 130,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. As of January 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,550 tons (5.81%) and a year - on - year increase of 50.76% [36]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 55,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,250 yuan/ton. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 245,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,250 tons (9%) and a year - on - year increase of 37.76%. The monthly operating rate decreased by 60% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year [43]. - Ternary Materials: As of January 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 59,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 870 tons (1.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 19.31%. The monthly operating rate decreased by 50% month - on - month and 44% year - on - year. As of the latest data, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [46]. - Lithium Manganate: As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,740 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 290 tons (2.89%) and a year - on - year increase of 15.95%. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium manganate was 54,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week [51]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 140 tons (0.89%) and a year - on - year increase of 131.56% [54]. - New Energy Vehicles: As of January 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 40.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.65% and a year - on - year increase of 1.32%. The monthly output was 1,041,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 39.41%; the sales volume was 945,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 44.74%. The cumulative export volume was 302,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 101.33% [57][61]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was - 0.81, presenting an inverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [66].