沪铜期货日报-20260213

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that copper prices may maintain a short - term oscillating upward trend, supported by market expectations of global demand growth and supply tightness. However, market sentiment may be affected by changes in expectations of the Fed's policies, and trading may become subdued and price fluctuations limited as the Chinese Spring Festival approaches [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market On February 12, 2026, the main copper futures contract (CU.SHF) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed an oscillating upward trend. The opening price was 103,620 yuan/ton, the highest price reached 103,730 yuan/ton, the lowest price dropped to 101,840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 102,330 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase from the previous trading day. The price fluctuated within a range of 1,890 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,347 lots, and the open interest was 147,631 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market Basis Analysis On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 102,330 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai spot copper price was 101,910 yuan/ton. The futures price was 420 yuan/ton higher than the spot price, indicating a futures premium [3]. 3. Market Dynamics The U.S. non - farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, suggesting that the U.S. economy remains resilient and strengthening the case for the Fed to maintain high interest rates. China's CPI year - on - year increase in January fell to 0.2%, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4%, reflecting weak domestic demand but stabilizing industrial prices. The overall macro - environment has a neutral supporting effect on gold [4]. 4. Market Outlook In the short term, copper prices are expected to continue an oscillating upward trend. Market expectations of global demand growth and supply tightness will support copper prices, but changes in market expectations of the Fed's policies may affect market sentiment. Additionally, as the Chinese Spring Festival approaches, market trading may become quiet, and price fluctuations may be limited [5][6].