Keshun(SZ:300737) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-13 09:50Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is poised for growth, with strong pricing power and an improving industry landscape. It has been restructuring its revenue sources, significantly increasing the share of non-residential and overseas income [5][8]. - The waterproofing industry has undergone significant changes over the past five years, with a shift in demand structure and an increase in market concentration. The company is expected to benefit from these trends [8][43]. - The company's financial performance is projected to recover, with expected revenue growth and improved profit margins in the coming years [6][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1996, the company specializes in comprehensive waterproofing solutions, covering various sectors including construction waterproofing, civil materials, and energy solutions. It has participated in major national projects [18]. - The company has a stable governance structure, with concentrated ownership among key stakeholders [20]. Industry Changes - The demand structure in the waterproofing industry has shifted, with non-residential applications gaining importance and the share of second-hand housing transactions increasing significantly [44][50]. - The industry has seen a significant reduction in competition, with market consolidation occurring faster than in other segments of the real estate chain [54]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to recover from a projected decline in 2025, with estimates of 6.22 billion yuan in 2025, followed by growth to 6.67 billion yuan in 2026 and 7.16 billion yuan in 2027 [6][10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve, with a forecasted increase to 28.1% in 2026 and 29.7% in 2027, reflecting the company's focus on high-margin products [6][10]. Investment Analysis - The company's valuation is currently below that of comparable companies in the consumer building materials sector, suggesting potential for upside as the market recovers [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong pricing power and willingness to increase prices, which could enhance profitability as market conditions improve [8][11].