美国1月非农就业数据解读：美国就业韧性超预期

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000 jobs, marking the highest monthly increase since July 2025[4] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the anticipated 4.4%, indicating a stronger labor market than expected[9] Labor Market Dynamics - Job growth was primarily driven by the education and healthcare sectors (+137,000) and construction (+33,000), while other sectors showed limited or negative growth[5] - The labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.5%, with the prime working age group (25-54 years) participation rising to 84.1%[11] Job Vacancies and Demand - Job vacancies decreased by 386,000 in December, leading to a vacancy rate of 3.9%, suggesting a continued decline in labor demand[11] - The Challenger Job Cut Index rose to 108,400 in January, indicating an increase in layoffs, although still within the range observed since April 2025[22] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the employment data release, expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026 significantly diminished, with the probability of a June rate cut dropping from 75.2% to 59.6%[25] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.47 basis points to 4.18% after the data release, reflecting market reactions to the stronger-than-expected employment figures[25] Inflation Outlook - The upcoming January CPI inflation data is critical, with market expectations suggesting potential seasonal factors may lead to higher-than-expected inflation[26] - If inflation does not cool down, the outlook for interest rate cuts in 2026 may face further challenges, although the overall expectation for two rate cuts in the second half remains unchanged[26]