破局：存款搬家和低利率“资产荒”的资管困局

Group 1 - The core issue facing asset management institutions is the contradiction between the expansion of liabilities due to the "deposit migration" phenomenon and the "asset scarcity" caused by low interest rates in the post-real estate era [7][8]. - The potential scale of deposit migration is estimated to exceed 32 trillion yuan, with 1-year and above fixed deposits maturing in 2026 expected to be between 50-70 trillion yuan [2][13]. - As deposit willingness declines and investment willingness improves, residents are likely to diversify their asset allocation from housing and deposits to a broader range of financial assets, with insurance, bank wealth management, and public "fixed income+" products being key beneficiaries [2][20]. Group 2 - The low interest rate environment has led to a significant decline in the yields of traditional fixed-income assets, making equity assets more attractive; for instance, the 3-year fixed deposit rate of major banks has dropped from 4.25% in 2013 to 1.25% currently [3][37]. - The shift towards equity investments is expected to bring approximately 1.2 trillion yuan of incremental funds to the stock market by 2026, with insurance, bank wealth management, and public "fixed income+" products contributing around 0.8 trillion, 0.3 trillion, and 0.1 trillion yuan respectively [3][37]. - Insurance funds are increasingly allocating to equity assets to balance the rigid liability costs with declining yields on traditional assets, with the proportion of equity investments expected to rise significantly in the coming years [39][40]. Group 3 - Bank wealth management products are facing challenges due to structural issues post-net worth reform, which limits their ability to attract long-term funds; currently, equity assets account for only 2.1% of their total investment [30][43]. - Public "fixed income+" products have a systematic research advantage in equity investments, but their growth is constrained by market volatility, which may deter low-risk depositors [31][43]. - The overall asset allocation of insurance funds still has significant room for improvement, with current equity asset allocation at only 15.5%, compared to much higher levels in developed markets [25][41].