油脂谨防潜在风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, risk aversion in the domestic oil market is intensifying. Soybean oil and palm oil have different focuses in their trends under the combined influence of their respective fundamentals and external factors, while maintaining a linkage [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - The current focus of the soybean oil market is the US 2026 biofuel mandatory blending quota to be determined in early March. Policy利好 expectations are continuously boosting the demand prospects of US soybean oil and global soybean oil. The 45Z clean fuel tax credit proposed rules recently issued by the US Treasury Department provide a profound and multi - level long - term structural support for the US soybean oil futures price [6]. - There are three main risks in the later soybean oil market. Firstly, if the US biofuel policy in March is less than expected or the drought in South America significantly improves, the prices of US soybeans and US soybean oil may decline, weakening the support for domestic import costs. Secondly, there is a risk of inventory accumulation in China. After the Spring Festival, if the consumption recovery is slow, the soybean oil inventory of oil mills may face pressure. Thirdly, attention should be paid to the price difference changes among oil varieties [7]. Palm Oil - The core logic of the palm oil market revolves around the contraction of origin supply, the warming of export demand, and the unexpected decline in inventory. The latest report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board confirms and strengthens this pattern. In January, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia decreased by 7.72% month - on - month to 2815000 tons, the production of crude palm oil decreased by 13.78% month - on - month to 1577000 tons, and the export volume increased by 11.44% month - on - month to 1484000 tons [8]. - In the domestic market, as the Spring Festival approaches, risk aversion is intensifying, which drags down the price. Potential risks include the subsequent weather changes in Southeast Asian producing areas and the purchasing rhythm of major importing countries. After the festival, attention should be paid to the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in February, high - frequency export data, and the actual arrival rhythm of domestic ports [9].