——2026年2月13日利率债观察：实在的数据远胜于内卷出的高增长

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Real data is better than "involution-driven" high growth. The credit growth in January 2026 was more realistic, and financial institutions paid more attention to the balanced credit delivery. Credit growth should match economic growth and price level targets, rather than simply aiming for high volume [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 2026 January Credit Data Analysis - The new RMB loans in January 2026 were 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the same period in 2024 (4.92 trillion yuan) and 2025 (5.13 trillion yuan), but significantly higher than November 2025 (0.39 trillion yuan) and December 2025 (0.91 trillion yuan) [1]. - January is usually a peak month for credit, with a seasonal "good start" pattern. In 2024 and 2025, January's credit increments accounted for 27.2% and 31.5% of the annual total respectively, and the first - quarter credit increments accounted for 52.3% and 60.1% of the annual total [1]. Analysis of "Involution - Driven" Credit Competition - Some financial institutions used to increase credit delivery in January or the first quarter to create a "good start" situation, which is an "involution - driven" competition. This behavior may lead to capital precipitation, lower net interest margins of the banking industry, and over - draw credit demand in subsequent months [2]. Evaluation of January 2026 Credit Situation - The credit growth in January 2026 was more realistic. The new loans in January were 4.71 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3.80 trillion yuan, indicating sufficient credit supply [3]. - On January 15, 2026, the central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, showing sufficient policy strength [3]. - The weighted average interest rate of new corporate loans (domestic and foreign currencies) in January 2026 was about 3.2%, about 20 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating that financial institutions fully met the effective financing needs of the real economy [3]. - In January 2026, the M2 growth rate reached 9.0%, the highest in the past two years, and the growth rate of the social financing stock was basically the same as that in December 2025, indicating a match between social financing scale, money supply growth, economic growth, and price level targets [3].