由创新高个股看市场投资热点(第 231 期)
Guoxin Securities·2026-02-13 11:57
- The report introduces a quantitative model based on tracking the 250-day high distance of stocks and indices, which serves as a momentum and trend-following strategy. The calculation formula is: $ 250\ Day\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price, and $ ts_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of pullback. [11][12][13] - The model evaluates the relative proximity of major indices to their 250-day highs. As of February 13, 2026, the 250-day high distances for indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index are 2.00%, 2.35%, 2.72%, 3.51%, 3.14%, 2.54%, 3.32%, and 5.50%, respectively. [12][13][31] - The report also tracks the proximity of industry indices and concept indices to their 250-day highs. For example, industries like building materials, machinery, light manufacturing, petrochemicals, and media are closer to their 250-day highs, while industries such as food & beverage, banking, comprehensive finance, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture are farther away. Concept indices such as paper, internet, cloud computing, energy storage, and engineering machinery are also closer to their 250-day highs. [13][15][31] - A separate quantitative factor is introduced to monitor stocks that have hit new highs in the past 20 trading days. A total of 1,390 stocks achieved 250-day highs during this period, with the highest numbers in industries like machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals. The highest proportions of new-high stocks are found in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and steel. [19][20][32] - The report further refines the analysis by introducing a "Stable New High Stock" factor, which selects stocks based on criteria such as analyst attention, relative price strength, price path smoothness, and sustained new highs. Specific metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative price strength: Top 20% in market-wide 250-day returns - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Sustained new highs: Average 250-day high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day high distance over the past 5 days Fifty stocks were selected based on these criteria, including names like Zhong Tung High-tech, Dike Co., and Xiechuang Data. [24][26][27] - The report highlights the distribution of stable new-high stocks across sectors, with the technology and manufacturing sectors having the highest numbers (21 and 16 stocks, respectively). Within technology, electronics dominate, while machinery leads in manufacturing. [27][28][32]