山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - It is expected that precious metals will experience wide - range fluctuations and be generally weak in the short term, oscillate to build a bottom in the medium term, and maintain a long - term bullish trend [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price Data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4941.40 per ounce, down $166.40 (-3.26%); London gold at $5043.15 per ounce, down $34.70 (-0.68%); Shanghai gold futures main contract at 1110.10 yuan per gram, down 16.02 yuan (-1.42%); Gold T + D at 1108.50 yuan per gram, down 14.42 yuan (-1.28%) [2]. - Position and Inventory: Comex gold positions decreased by 16.13% to 409,694 contracts; Shanghai gold futures main contract positions decreased by 6.53% to 153,140 contracts; LBMA gold inventory increased by 0.57% to 9158 tons [2]. 2. Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can use a high - selling and low - buying strategy. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. - Price Data: Comex silver active contract closed at $75.01 per ounce, down $9.07 (-10.79%); London silver at $83.52 per ounce, down $2.58 (-3.00%); Shanghai silver futures main contract at 19,782 yuan per kilogram, down 844 yuan (-4.09%) [5]. - Position and Inventory: Comex silver positions remained unchanged at 143,180 contracts; Shanghai silver futures main contract positions decreased by 20.22% to 2,718,300 contracts; Total visible inventory decreased by 1.78% to 40,324 tons [5]. 3. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are necessary [7]. - Price Data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2097.40 per ounce, up $126.40 (6.41%); London platinum at $2054 per ounce, up $30 (1.48%); Platinum futures main contract on Guangzhou Futures Exchange at 545.05 yuan per gram, up 39.05 yuan (7.72%) [8]. - Position and Inventory: NYMEX platinum active contract positions decreased by 5.47% to 55,657 contracts; NYMEX platinum total inventory decreased by 1.33% to 21 tons [8]. 4. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are recommended [10]. - Price Data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1712 per ounce, up $71 (4.33%); London palladium at $1693 per ounce, down $127 (-7.56%); Palladium futures main contract on Guangzhou Futures Exchange at 438.15 yuan per gram, up 27.65 yuan (6.74%) [10]. - Position and Inventory: NYMEX palladium active contract positions decreased by 14.87% to 13,515 contracts; NYMEX palladium total inventory decreased by 14.80% to 6 tons [10]. 5. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Monetary Policy: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, and the reserve balance interest rate is 3.65%, all down 0.25 percentage points [11]. - Economic Indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39%, down 0.11 (-4.40%); the US dollar index is 96.91, down 1.06 (-1.08%); the US trade deficit is -$56.8 billion, down $27.6 billion (-94.57%) [11][13]. - Inflation Data: CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, with no change; core CPI year - on - year is 2.60%, with no change; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.77%, up 0.09 [11]. - Other Data: The geopolitical risk index is 142.57, down 24.88 (-14.86%); the VIX index is 20.82, up 3.17 (17.96%); the CRB commodity index is 306.23, down 4.36 (-1.40%) [13].