油脂周度行情观察-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil continues to decline, with limited bullish drivers from the MPOB report. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as production, exports, and domestic inventory [4]. - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and domestic supply is relatively loose. The US biodiesel policy may support demand [4]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate. Global rapeseed supply is relatively loose, and future rapeseed supply in China is expected to increase, which may suppress prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Palm oil: Continued to decline. The MPOB report's bullish drivers were limited. Malaysia's production decreased in January, exports increased, and inventory decreased but was still at a high level year - on - year. Indonesia will raise export taxes in March, suppressing exports. India has pre - festival stocking demand, and domestic inventory is high with mainly rigid demand. It will fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - Soybean oil: There is an expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans. As of February 5, the harvest progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean was 16%, and the harvest accelerated in February. US - India trade agreement may increase the demand for US soybean oil. Domestic oil mill operating rates are at a high level year - on - year, and supply is relatively loose. The US 45Z proposed rule may support demand [4]. - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuated weakly this week. Global rapeseed supply is relatively loose. As of February 6, domestic rapeseed inventory was 48,000 tons, and rapeseed oil production continued to increase. Australian rapeseed is being crushed, and short - term supply is tight with flat demand. The China - Canada trade agreement may increase future rapeseed supply and suppress prices [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - Palm oil: Domestic near - month ship purchases increased. As of February 6, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 726,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,300 tons, or 3.61% [7][9]. - Soybean oil: The soybean port inventory decreased to 5.909 million tons as of February 6, which was at a low level year - on - year. The oil mill soybean crushing volume was 248,400 tons, and the operating rate rose to 68.33%. The soybean oil production was 47,190 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,570 tons [9]. - Rapeseed oil: Australian rapeseed began to be crushed, and supply is expected to increase. As of February 6, the coastal oil mill rapeseed oil production was 4,100 tons [9]. 3.2.2 Demand - Palm oil: Domestic demand was weak. As of February 6, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key oil mills across the country was 4,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [9]. - Soybean oil: Pre - festival stocking ended, and trading volume decreased. As of February 6, the domestic weekly trading volume of soybean oil was 88,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 164,400 tons [9]. - Rapeseed oil: As of February 6, the coastal oil mill rapeseed oil pick - up volume was 2,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [9]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Palm oil: As of February 6, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 726,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,300 tons, or 3.61% [7]. - Soybean oil: As of February 6, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 959,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,100 tons, or 1.38% [7]. - Rapeseed oil: As of February 6, the rapeseed oil inventory was 240,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons, or 2.44%, and it was at a low level year - on - year [7]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - As of February 6, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1,116/ton, and the import cost was 9,262 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 206 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Malaysian Palm Oil Situation 3.3.1 Production - In January, Malaysian palm oil was in the seasonal production - reduction season. Affected by rainfall, the production decreased by 1.5775 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 13.78%. Although the decrease was large, the production was still at a high level year - on - year. In February, production is expected to continue to decline. From February 1 - 10, the production decreased by 7.58% month - on - month [14]. 3.3.2 Inventory - In January, the inventory decreased to 2.8155 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72%. The de - stocking amplitude was higher than market expectations, but the inventory was still at a high level year - on - year [15]. 3.3.3 Export - In January, Malaysian palm oil exports were 1.4843 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%. Due to the lower price of Malaysian palm oil, India's palm oil imports increased in January [18]. 3.3.4 Consumption - The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 361,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.52% [19]. 3.4 Domestic Oil Situation 3.4.1 Palm Oil - As of February 6, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 726,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,300 tons, and it was at a high level year - on - year. In December, domestic palm oil imports were 280,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. As of February 6, the trading volume was 4,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons, and it was at a low level. The import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 46 yuan/ton [21][24][28]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil - As of February 6, the soybean port inventory was 5.909 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 804,000 tons. The oil mill soybean crushing volume was 248,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,790 tons, and it was at a high level year - on - year. The oil mill operating rate was 68.33%, the soybean oil production was 47,190 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,570 tons, and it was at a high level year - on - year. The soybean oil inventory of 90 sample enterprises was 959,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,100 tons, and it was still at a high level year - on - year [30][32]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil - As of February 6, the rapeseed inventory was 48,000 tons, and the rapeseed crushing volume was 10,000 tons. The coastal oil mill rapeseed oil production was 4,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,300 tons, but it was still at a low level. The rapeseed oil inventory was 240,000 tons, and the inventory continued to decrease [34][37].