聚酯链日报：供给宽松需求疲软，PX、PTA价格承压-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to the ample supply and weak demand, the prices of PX and PTA are under pressure, and future price trends are likely to remain weak. Additionally, the polyester industry chain is also facing downward price pressure and potential inventory accumulation [1][2][3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - PX & PTA: On February 12, the PX main contract closed at 7,312.0 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -299.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 5,220.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -60.0 yuan/ton. The PTA plant operating rate is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, and the sufficient supply of upstream PX and weakened cost support may prompt PTA factories to maintain a high operating level, which will put downward pressure on PX and PTA prices. The polyester operating rate may decline under pressure, and the overall weakness in demand will have a negative impact on PX and PTA prices. The PTA factory inventory level may be high, and the negative basis structure indicates that the market expects future supply to be in excess or de - stocking to be slow, which will further suppress PX and PTA prices [2][3][4]. - Polyester: On February 12, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,622.0 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,590.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of -32.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the Light Textile City continued to decline, reflecting weakening terminal demand. Although the inventories of polyester staple fiber, FDY, POY, and DTY are all lower than the average of the past 5 years, the FDY inventory has increased, indicating signs of inventory accumulation for some products. The prices of the polyester industry chain are under downward pressure, and inventory may gradually accumulate [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.89% to 7,312 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 5.98%, and the open interest decreased by 1.19%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 917.33 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 0.78% to 886 US dollars/ton. The PX basis increased by 18.08% to -299 yuan/ton [6]. - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.76% to 5,220 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 2.54%, and the open interest decreased by 2.05%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 667 US dollars/ton. The PTA basis increased by 40.00% to -60 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13.21% to -92 yuan/ton, while the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8.33% to 22 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 14.63% to 70 yuan/ton. The PTA import profit decreased by 0.30% to -512.97 yuan/ton [6]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.48% to 6,622 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 17.17%, and the open interest decreased by 3.85%. The spot price in the East China market remained unchanged at 6,590 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 50.00% to -32 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 61.54% to 84 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 21.74% to -56 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 366.67% to -28 yuan/ton [6]. - Other Products: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased by 2.99% and 3.05% respectively. The CFR price of naphtha in Japan remained unchanged at 617.13 US dollars/ton. The prices of ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged, with only the polyester bottle chips increasing by 0.24% [6]. - Processing Spreads: The processing spread of naphtha increased by 20.33% to 79.79 US dollars/ton, the PX processing spread remained unchanged at 300.2 US dollars/ton, the PTA processing spread decreased by 0.42% to 313.1 yuan/ton, the polyester bottle chips processing spread increased by 11.15% to -119.5 yuan/ton, and the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged [7]. - Industrial Chain Load Rates: The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [7]. - Inventory Days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber increased by 6.91% to 6.03 days, the inventory days of polyester POY decreased by 10.24% to 11.4 days, the inventory days of polyester FDY increased by 10.76% to 17.5 days, and the inventory days of polyester DTY increased by 8.25% to 21 days [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - Macro - dynamics: On February 12, after the release of non - farm payroll data, traders lowered their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Trump praised the non - farm data and urged the Fed to cut interest rates to the "lowest in the world." The Central Bank of Kenya joined the ranks of African countries increasing gold holdings. The Fed's Schmid favored maintaining interest rates at a "somewhat restrictive" level, and Milan said he would be willing to stay at the Fed if nominated. The Central Bank of Serbia's gold reserves reached a record high at the end of January. India asked refiners to consider increasing purchases of US and Venezuelan crude oil. On February 11, Fed officials believed that the economic outlook was positive, inflation was still high, and there was no urgent need to cut interest rates this year [8]. - Supply and Demand - Demand: On February 9, the total trading volume in the Light Textile City was 551.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 28.9%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 460.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 89.0 million meters [10].