乙二醇日报：乙二醇供给增库存升，预计弱势延续-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing and the inventory is rising, and it is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term due to the prominent supply - demand contradiction, high - level inventory accumulation, and deteriorating production costs [2][3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Market Summary - 主力合约与基差: The main futures contract price of ethylene glycol dropped from 3,975 yuan/ton to 3,935 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01%. The spot price in East China also declined from 3,650 yuan/ton to 3,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23%. The basis widened from - 325 yuan/ton to - 330 yuan/ton [2] - 持仓与成交: The open interest of the main contract increased by 8,928 lots to 437,707 lots, a growth of 2.08%. However, the trading volume decreased significantly by 72,332 lots to 200,272 lots, a decline of 26.53% [2] - 供给端: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate rose 3.6% to 65.29%, with the oil - based operating rate increasing 2.2% to 65.57% and the coal - based operating rate surging 6.1% to 58.64%. The profits of various production methods generally deteriorated [2] - 需求端: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was maintained at 63.43%, indicating stable but ungrowing demand [2] - 库存端: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 935,000 tons, a growth of 4.24%. Although the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly by 4,000 tons to 450,000 tons, the overall port inventory pressure increased [2] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - 期货与现货价格: The main futures contract price of MEG decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China dropped by 45 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased, while the trading volume decreased [5] - 生产利润: The profits of all production methods decreased. For example, the profit of ethylene - based SD oxidation method dropped by 196 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.92% [5] - 开工负荷: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, and oil - based operating rate increased, while the loads of polyester factories and textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged [5] - 库存情况: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly [5] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On February 12, the negotiation in the East China US - dollar ethylene glycol market was stalemate in the morning and the market center shifted down in the afternoon. The ethylene glycol market in the mainstream areas continued to fluctuate, with low terminal demand and weak purchasing willingness [6] 3.4 Price Trend Judgment - The ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation or decline. The reasons are the increasing supply (rising operating rates), stable but ungrowing demand, inventory accumulation indicating oversupply, and weakened cost support due to the deterioration of production profits [63]